It is not of receipt to continue applying measures that they go
completely against the solution that is sought, it cannot intersect the whole
cloth with oneself pattern, like a good tailor would say, each one has his
defects and his measures, therefore it is necessary to be adapted independently
to those contours to those widths or those hardships of what they say those
that without attribution some, they have taken possession of the political and
economic administration of the euro area.
The problem of Spain returns to my analyses, it is not the sovereign
debt that continues being of the lowest in the euro area, our problems they
are: the unemployment, the private debt, and the lack of productivity, the
first one insists cause some costs of more than 40,000 million annual Eurus,
and the second the restlessness and the international distrust, and the third
cannot contribute the necessary thing to cover the common and much less expense
necessities the costs of the interests and the paying-off of the debts.
Against but I marry he makes the team of the government from Spain
headed by the chancellor Merkel to the measures made "prêt to porter"
for all, deeper the wound of the deficit of the budget of Spain will be made, I
return to the cold numbers, that it is worth the increase of the IRPF if every
time there is less people than they work and that therefore they don't have it
nominates to continue on the part of country property, that it serves that on
one hand they increase this tax a stocking of 3% if the unemployment will
ascend this year 5% to my numbers they tell me clearly that the government
collected -2%.
But it is that much more alarming theories also exist, unless the
European economy recovers abruptly (something not very probable), the Spanish
economy will never fall to depths views, the perspectives for 2012 are really preoccupants,
since to the collapse of the internal demand it will be necessary to add that
of the tourism, that of the external demand and a dramatic fiscal contraction,
if it is that they love each other to reach the deficit objectives stubbornly
with single restrictive measures. With this panorama, the unemployment figure
had given for some weeks of 27%, by JP.Morgan for final of 2012 seems,
unfortunately, not only possible but quite probable, that which would make that
the rent collection falls a (- 5%).
Frankly I don't know of where the government is taken out the measures
that will apply, it is that they have not thought it such and like I come
saying, I believe sincerely that they have received some you order imperious on
the part of the European central axis, and they have not stopped to discuss
anything but, the reality with which they will be goes it is necessary to be
disastrous, the state won't collect but with its tax measures because it
counteracts them and it deepens them with the restrictive measures that cause
but stagnation and recession, in the productive industry, in the services, and
in the consumption, the measures applied in the IRPF are also clear that there
is but less unemployed nominate of where to subtract the amount of the tax,
because we are not dreamer here those that have to pay the 54 or 56% won't pay
it they already managed them for not making it, and that they pray that its
measure is not to disappear of this country disaster.
As I have said the improvisation and the carried to an extreme speed in
making decisions, they denote that they have not valued the reality of the
Spanish economy, because in view of their reality one cannot think neither in
braking neither in recording anything. The rosary of bad data is endless:
enrollments of trucks in minima from 1985, of automobiles from 1986, the cement
consumption in minima from 1967, international flights growing to their
smallest rate from 2009, absolute minima in initiate housings since they exist
statistical, new total credit falling to 13,6%, new credit to the housing
purchase falling to 43,9%, to the consumption 50,9%, PMI of services in minima
from 2009, fiscal collection descending 10,5%...
All this but the own insecurities about the global economy of the euro
area, it has revived the punishment against the Spanish debt that already
accumulates three days in frank setback with that of today. This way, after
getting lost in the outburst of the year the improvement registered by Italy,
before the revision to the rise of the deficit and (With the good news of the
urgent rescue of the Valencia community always governed by the PP that governs
us now), the differential of risk of Spain heads again to the psychological
frontier of the 350 basic points. Next to the deterioration of this indicator
that is equal to the surcharge demanded to the funds from the Treasure to 10
years in front of the Germans, of reference.
The other key is being the banking that has crawled to strong losses to
the Bag. In Spain the same as it happens to the unemployment (that is not
possible to reduce it unless we reduce the demography in a number between 5 or
6 million inhabitants) the national economy cannot sustain, not already to so
many banks and boxes of savings, if not that it cannot sustain to two systemic
entities as they are the BBVA and the Santander its depreciation it is so
brutal that it confirms it, the economic world knows that they are untenable,
but because he explains to himself that they have fallen more than 65% in the
last 5 years, and any European international bank or not, an OPA have rushed to
be made with them, simply because they are unviable they are as some big globes
about to explode, positions in unstable balance on some pointed
toothpicks.
The problem of the government's country gentlemen is not in its
possibilities to solve it, because they are not able to him neither you want to
admit it, Spain is a country of carton stone, unbalanced totally, with false
structures, carried out by ambitions of dreamer political, full with dreams of
imperial greatness already passed of time, and this doesn't get ready with more
cuttings neither with more taxes are a proverb in my earth that translated he
says "of where there is not it doesn't leave anything" and this it is
the current reality, there is not more than what there is and it is not in fact
abundance.
Reconsider it they think they speak with the European union, expose the
things like they are I don't eat you wanted that was, explain to them that we
cannot give employment to more than 3 million unemployed that are those that they
have more than enough to arrive to the normal thing historical, explain to them
that we cannot make in front of the private debt that the banks to become
important and big facilitated us in their day, tell them that there is not
industry in this country that the little one that there was this working
outside of Spain. Who he knows maybe if they explain to it well and they
understand it, they really helped us to fix it. There is not anything worse
than to want to play the loner and to be made traps to it to deceive to the
other ones.
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