domingo, 4 de marzo de 2012

THIS EUROPE IN THE ADDRESS OF A DEMOCRATIC DICTATORSHIP


I take many months saying in many of my articles that the democracy of the centuries 17, 18, 19 and 20 no longer serve, it has become old and it has been overcome by the increment of the society and for the different varieties of some same politicians or tendencies that make that it is already practically ineffective, since the "majorities" base of the democracy are so many that every time they are more minorities than non majorities inside the electoral universe. That bears ineffective governments because they don't have the popular back in fact, this way in countless cases they should conjugate more or less with elements you tune, but that they didn't obtain any right to govern coming from the popular vote, but rather they generally take it for indirect right and annulling the objectives for those that most minority it was chosen. 

It is a complicated point to explain what I interpret on what is happening, but I should begin with this short and a little incomplete introduction, to arrive to the point that I want to comment today. I am convinced that my theory is shared by many of the politicians that end up governing and once there, they realize that they cannot make it, the last sounded case, we have lived him in Spain with the socialist party and mainly with the PSC in Catalonia, both but mainly this last one, they have destroyed to the Spanish nation and mainly to Catalonia, in this last one, they governed at the same time eight years three left, and each a different form, result the economic and social death of Catalonia, each one of the three lefts wanted to impose something, and it was made this way, the economic and social political disorder is still today, well to the white.  

I believe that this topic has already entered to in the government of the European Union, this way this undoubtedly Europe in such a desperate situation for the economic problems that have placed it in a tremendous recession, has made a pragmatic decision that is to impose the democratic dictatorship in government's politics, and it is comprehensible, that that not you now to define is if at the same time it is dangerous making like it is sought to make, with the help of the accomplished facts, but it is that in fact there is not time to make it otherwise, in this situation this idea is to impose it years they cannot spend speculating and editing another democracy and another new constitution. 

Merkel, Rajoy, Monti and Cameron make a pact the rival of Sarkozy ignore, said otherwise, the conservatives of the politicians of right of Europe, they will face the socialist tendencies of Left together, and that because, because it is very simple, the politicians with government's responsibility finally realize that a society is headstrong if everything doesn't go her in a single address. This happens until with the sheep one of the most docile animals in the animal world, or they take them all meetings or there is not who moves them. He gives the same thing that the dogs shepherds are white or black, but they have to guide all in a single address. 

And the problem is this, the mistaken European politics or not, it is guided by the theory of the conservative right, we can say that today ninety percent of the European Union is low it guides her of governments of right, since France with Sarkozy follows this address. This Europe has been forced to undertake some brutal and imperious reformations that could have been other, certainly, if instead of governing in most of the countries partners the politicians of right, is making it those of the left, maybe today we would be speaking of public investments and debt increases to reactivate the production and to reduce the unemployment, but it is not this way and we speak of reducing deficits, debts, and to prepare the economy for beginning the march later. 

These are the alternatives, what cannot be is that some parts of Europe go on one hand, and others for other, and this it is the danger that you can present with France in May, if Sarkozy doesn't win the elections and he cannot give continuity to government's unique politics in the euro area. Because then the only thing certain, will be the separation of the own European Union, their governability it would be much worse that the experience lived in the Catalonia governed by three different left. A Europa governed by two tendencies would be the same thing that to leave Europe or to create the Europe of the two speeds or more bad of the two societies. 

So it seems that the European politicians will try to implant in Europe the democratic dictatorship, which is to say to impose, the politics’ majority sum exercised by the democratic governments of the different countries, according to the elected majorities for their societies. It can be a new political system, although I believe that these aberrations could be avoided once and for all, if decides to create the Federal Europe with a single and only government in the summit that was chosen democratically by the federations, but I fear myself that to arrive until there they still lack many miseries that to happen. 

ESTA EUROPA EN LA DIRECCION DE UNA DICTADURA DEMOCRATICA



Llevo muchos meses diciendo en muchos de mis artículos, que la democracia de los siglos 17, 18, 19 y 20 ya no sirve, se ha hecho vieja y ha sido superada por el incremento de la sociedad y por las diferentes variedades de unas mismas políticas o tendencias, que hacen que sea ya prácticamente ineficaz, ya que las “mayorías” base de la democracia son tantas, que cada vez son más minorías que no mayorías dentro del universo electoral. Eso conlleva gobiernos ineficaces porque no tienen en realidad el respaldo popular, así en innumerables casos  deben de conjugarse con elementos más o menos afines, pero que no obtuvieron ningún derecho a gobernar procedente del voto popular, sino que lo toman por derecho indirecto y desvirtuando generalmente los objetivos por los que la mayoría minoritaria fue elegida.

Es un tanto complicado explicar lo que interpreto sobre lo que está pasando, pero debo empezar por esta introducción corta y un poco incompleta, para llegar al punto que quiero comentar hoy. Estoy convencido que mi teoría es compartida por muchos de los políticos que llegan a gobernar y una vez allí, se dan cuenta de que no pueden hacerlo, el último caso sonado, lo hemos vivido en España  con el partido socialista y sobre todo con el PSC en Catalunya, ambos pero sobre todo este último, han destrozado a la nación española y sobre todo a Catalunya, en esta última, gobernaron ocho años tres izquierda a la vez, y cada una era diferente, resultado la muerte económica y social de Catalunya, cada una de las tres izquierdas quería imponer algo, y así se hacía, el desorden político económico y social está todavía hoy, bien a las claras.

Creo que este tema ha entrado ya a en la gobernabilidad de la Unión Europea, así esta claro que Europa en una situación tan desesperada por los problemas económicos, que la han colocado en una tremenda recesión, ha tomado una decisión pragmática que es imponer la dictadura democrática en la política de gobierno, y es comprensible, lo que no se ahora definir es si a la vez es peligroso háchelo como se pretende hacer, a base de los hechos consumados, pero es que  en realidad no hay tiempo para hacerlo de otra manera, en esta situación esta idea hay que imponerla no se pueden pasar años especulando y redactando otra democracia y otra constitución nueva.

Merkel, Rajoy, Monti y Cameron pactan ignorar al rival de Sarkozy, dicho de otro modo, los conservadores de las políticas de derechas de Europa, van a enfrentarse juntos a las tendencias socialistas de Izquierda, y eso porque, pues es muy sencillo, los políticos con responsabilidad de gobierno por fin se dan cuenta que una sociedad es ingobernable si no va toda ella en una sola dirección. Esto ocurre hasta con las ovejas uno de los animales más dóciles del mundo animal, o las llevan todas juntas o no hay quien las mueva. Da lo mismo que los perros pastores sean blancos o negros, pero tienen que guiar todos en una sola dirección.

Y el problema es este, la política europea equivocada o no, está guiada por la teoría de la derecha conservadora, podemos decir que hoy el noventa por ciento de la unión europea está bajo la tutela de gobiernos de derechas, puesto que Francia con Sarkozy sigue esta dirección. Esta Europa se ha visto obligada a emprender unas reformas brutales e imperiosas, que podían haber sido otras, desde luego, si en lugar de gobernar en la mayoría de los países socios las políticas de derechas, lo estuviesen haciendo las de la izquierda, quizás hoy estaríamos hablando de inversiones públicas y aumentos de deuda  para reactivar la producción y rebajar el desempleo, pero no es así y hablamos de reducir déficits, deudas, y preparar la economía para reemprender la marcha después.

Estas son las alternativas, lo que no puede ser es que unas partes de Europa vayan por un lado, y otras por otro, y este es el peligro que se puede presentar con Francia en Mayo, si Sarkozy no gana las elecciones y no puede dar continuidad a la política única de gobierno en la euro zona. Porque entonces lo único cierto, será la desarticulación de la propia unión europea, su gobernabilidad sería mucho peor que la experiencia vivida en la Catalunya gobernada por tres diferentes izquierdas. Una europa gobernada por dos tendencias sería lo mismo que partir Europa o crear la Europa de las dos velocidades o peor de las dos sociedades.

Así que parece que los políticos europeos van a intentar implantar en Europa la dictadura democrática, es decir imponer dictatoríamente, la suma mayoritaria de la política ejercida por los gobiernos democráticos de los diferentes países, de acuerdo a las mayorías elegidas por sus sociedades. Puede ser un nuevo sistema político, aunque creo que estas aberraciones podrían evitarse de una vez, si se decidiese crear la Europa Federal con un solo y único gobierno en la cima, que fuese elegido democráticamente por las federaciones, pero me temo que para llegar hasta ahí faltan todavía muchas miserias que pasar.

sábado, 3 de marzo de 2012

GREECE POINTED OUT THE EXIT TO MANY MORE


It removes it is "a fraud". that clear and definitive the economist Leonidas Vatikiotis is shown who it leads a group of experts that bets for an independent audit of the Greek debt, in order to declare which should be paid and which it can be considered "illegitimate" and not to be paid. Although the ruling parties and the dominant opinion among the economists, it is that the process of it removes it of the Greek debt he can help to the country to make more sustainable their debt, every time is bigger the number of its opponents that they realize that they are suffering an incredible manipulation. 

In fact, when the plan - well-known as Participation of the Private sector (PSI) - it was voted in the Parliament, it was only supported by two of the five present parties and still among these there was a scattering of several dozens of deputies. The PSI will mean the retreat of 107.000 million Eurus, had in its majority by private investors through an exchange for holding of depreciated value, something that should benefit to Greece in principle. 

However, Vatikiotis puts as example a simple bill mathematics: the new loan of the European Union (UE) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) it will suppose 130.000 million Eurus, that that in spite of it removes it of 107.000 millions a balance of 23.000 million additional Eurus that will be added to the current one hurtles I mount of the Greek debt, about 360.000 million Eurus. So the Greek debt you increased to 383.000 million Eurus according to the following position (Debt current +360.000 mills. - 107.000 mills. it removes + 130.000 mill. IMF = 383.000 million Eurus.) 

In synthesis the world help to Greece is a total swindle, in fact what they help is to those worthy to those that them means guarantees its interests, by means of an I deposit untouchable for the Greek government and that he administered the European commission, like he has decided and that alone it will be good to pay interests. The official position is that the objective of it removes it is to make the most sustainable debt reducing it until 120,5% of the GDP in 2020, in front of more than 160%) current, a calculation that Vatikiotis considers "ridiculous" because it is based in that the Greek economy will grow more than 2% starting from 2014 and the State will have surplus it sews that all economist or not, he knows that it is very unlikely. The reputed economist Nouriel Roubini also rejects these calculations because he believes that "the medicine of the troika will kill the patient" and that to the years of recession that Greece lives, they will continue "other five years of depression", he affirmed in a recent conference in Athens. 

"During the years of European rescue we have suffered the biggest increase in debt of the history, passing of 115% of the GDP in 2009 to more than 160% ", Vatikiotis criticizes and it denounces that the debt has become a "ball of snow", because when it cannot be paid it refinances himself contracting new loans. It is said a perfect structure of a swindle of pyramidal type otherwise. 

Another of the problems is that the new funds will be emitted low British jurisdiction. Country that I eat everybody knows, it doesn't belong to the euro group, currency in the one that this indexed the debt. This will allow to the forks of the renovated debt to claim properties of the Greek State in the event of unpaid of the funds, For it, the former socialist minister Luka Katseli voted against the PSI, because it considers that the agreement gives right to the worthy ones to confiscate the reservations of gold of the Central Bank of Greece. 

Then, so that it will serve the process of it removes it? So that with these exchange processes and new loans, become a debt previously hands deprived in one in hands of States and organisms of the UE, what will "hinder" future restructurings that without a doubt are necessary again. After gathering all these information’s and economists' declarations and politicians collections in the press I have stayed of stone, me since this history began, I have always maintained that the solution was to catch the debt Greek that when he said this it was of about 320,000 million Eurus, and the BCE said it absorbs 130.000 millions that it is surprisingly the figure of the bottom of help and he leaves the debt in 120% of the Greek GDP and you finishes the problem.  

But it is not as well as the European Union works, it seems to be that its mission is to swindle and to make business with the miseries of its partners, and although in this case the misery has looked for it to him the own Greece with its false bills to be welcomed to the euro in its moment, this doesn't justify the form of acting of the European Union. The things make this way well Spain and their government in making their own decisions, although then they accuse us of entering in Europe like an elephant in a pottery shop, I fear myself that in little time we will have to think about many countries, I don't eat to enter, but as escaping from sizes swindlers.  

GRECIA SEÑALARA LA SALIDA A MUCHOS MAS



La quita es "un fraude". Así de claro y tajante se muestra el economista Leonidas Vatikiotis, quien lidera un grupo de expertos que apuesta por una auditoría independiente de la deuda griega, a fin de declarar cual se debe pagar y cuál puede ser considerada "ilegítima" y no pagarse. Si bien los partidos gobernantes y la opinión dominante entre los economistas, es que el proceso de la quita de la deuda griega puede ayudar al país a hacer más sostenible su deuda, cada vez es mayor el número de sus opositores que se dan cuenta de que están sufriendo una increíble manipulación.

De hecho, cuando el plan -conocido como Participación del Sector Privado (PSI)- se votó en el Parlamento, sólo fue apoyado por dos de los cinco partidos presentes y aún entre estos hubo una desbandada de varias decenas de diputados. La PSI significará la retirada de 107.000 millones de euros, tenidos en su mayoría por inversores privados a través de un canje por títulos de valor depreciado, algo que en principio debería beneficiar a Grecia.

Sin embargo, Vatikiotis pone como ejemplo una simple cuenta matemática: el nuevo préstamo de la Unión Europea (UE) y el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) supondrá 130.000 millones de euros, lo que a pesar de la quita de 107.000 millones arroja un saldo de 23.000 millones de euros adicionales, que se sumará al actual monto de la deuda griega, unos 360.000 millones de euros. Así que la deuda griega se aumentara a 383.000 millones de euros según el siguiente planteamiento (Deuda actual +360.000 mill. – (107.000 mill. quita) + 130.000 mill. FMI = 383.000 millones de euros.)

En síntesis la ayuda mundial a Grecia es una estafa total, en realidad lo que ayudan es a los acreedores a los que les medio garantizan sus intereses, mediante un deposito intocable por el gobierno griego y que administrara la comisión europea, como se ha decidido y que solo servirá para pagar intereses. El planteamiento oficial es que el  objetivo de la quita es hacer la deuda más sostenible reduciéndola hasta el 120,5 % del PIB en 2020, frente a más del 160 %) actual, un cálculo que Vatikiotis considera "ridículo" porque se basa en que la economía griega crecerá más del 2 % a partir de 2014 y el Estado tendrá superávit cosa que todo economista o no, sabe que es muy improbable. El reputado economista Nouriel Roubini, también rechaza estos cálculos pues cree que "la medicina de la troika va a matar al paciente" y que a los años de recesión que vive Grecia, seguirán "otros cinco años de depresión", afirmó en una reciente conferencia en Atenas.

"Durante los años de rescate europeo hemos sufrido el mayor aumento de deuda de la historia, pasando del 115 % del PIB en 2009 a más del 160 %", critica Vatikiotis y denuncia que la deuda se ha convertido en una "bola de nieve", pues cuando no se puede pagar se refinancia contrayendo nuevos préstamos. Es dicho de otra manera una perfecta estructura de una estafa de tipo piramidal.

Otro de los problemas es que los nuevos bonos, se emitirán bajo jurisdicción británica. País que como todo el mundo conoce, no pertenece al euro grupo, moneda en la que esta referenciada la deuda. Esto permitirá a los tenedores de la renovada deuda reclamar propiedades del Estado griego en caso de impago de los bonos, Por ello, la ex ministra socialista Luka Katseli votó en contra de la PSI, pues considera que el acuerdo da derecho a los acreedores a confiscar las reservas de oro del Banco Central de Grecia.

Entonces, ¿para que servirá el proceso de la quita? Para que  con estos procesos de canje y nuevos préstamos, se convierta una deuda anteriormente en manos privadas en una en manos de Estados y organismos de la UE, lo que "dificultará" futuras reestructuraciones, que sin duda volverán a ser necesarias. Después de reunir todas estas informaciones y declaraciones de economistas y políticos recogidas en la prensa me he quedado de piedra, yo desde que empezó esta historia, siempre he mantenido que la solución era coger la deuda griega enterita, que cuando decía esto era de unos 320,000 millones de euros, y decía el BCE absorbe 130.000 millones que es curiosamente la cifra del fondo de ayuda y deja la deuda en un 120% del PIB griego y se acabo el problema.

Pero no es así como funciona la Unión Europea, parece ser que su misión es estafar y hacer negocios con las miserias de sus socios, y aunque en este caso la miseria se la ha buscado la propia Grecia con sus falsas cuentas para acogerse al euro en su momento,  esto no justifica la forma de actuar de la Unión Europea. Así las cosas hace bien España y su gobierno en tomar sus propias decisiones, aunque luego nos acusen de entrar en Europa como un elefante en una cacharrería, me temo que en poco tiempo vamos a tener que plantearnos muchos países, no como entrar, sino como escapar de tamaños estafadores.

SPAIN TOO MUCH HISTORY FOR NOT BEING ANYTHING


This is the great paradox of Spain, after so many centuries, of so many conquests, of so many kings, of so many wars, of two republics, of a dictatorship and of an incipient democracy, it is not anything, he doesn't paint anything, it is not made feel, he doesn't have influence some, neither anything that to teach, it continues so isolated of Europe and of the world concert as always has been he in the modern era. It is worthy of stopping to study this fact that happens to us, a historical moment in that didn't put on the sun in the Empire of Spain, arrive and suddenly you clouds and good-bye the greatness of Spain.  

Because we don't deceive ourselves, at the moment we are not anything, in the G-8-10-20… we are invited only, in the Council of Security of the ONU we figure in coexistence with other countries, that is to say never we have been for example permanent member as France, apart from this in the UN we figure as members of the heap, as they are the Zimbabwe or Costa of Ivory to say something. That it happens to us or that he has spent that we have made bad. 

We have possibly sinned of proud and not solider, non hays participated in the important European events, neither in the first great European war, neither in the Second World War. And this is evident it isolated us, because while the nations of Europe and the USA fought to liberate our continent of the absolutism I was Born that he tried to dominate him, we were unintentionally behind the Pyrenees to make anything, independently of the fact that we in our country, already had our installed dictatorial nationalism, the certain thing is that this episode, I believe I, reaffirm our isolation definitively, first lover and defended by our kings and previous politicians, then imposed by the western world to Spain, and their dictatorship and now maintained without knowing very well because. 

This situation should change, we should find the solution, something works bad in our country that prevents to expand, to be somebody in the world concert, I have compared a fact that I worry about, and that I don't want to accept like hopeless cause, is the geographical situation, if we contemplate Europe, we see that the Mediterranean South part, is the more separate of the continent, the poorest, the less influential one, and surprisingly also the more loaded with history, Greece, Italy (except the north), Portugal and the Balkans. This is a fact, but today this cannot be the cause of the problem because if it is it we would not have solution. 

For me the problem of Spain, is its own internal imbalance, and that he constantly refuses always for the dominant political class, and please that I am not understood bad, Spain is in fact Castile, and the rest is, as me he would say it for not offending sensibilities, subject towns of the Kingdom of first Castile, provincial later, and nationalist now, but they have never had rights neither importance for the centralist ruling elite. That is to say Spain begins locking in itself, its power believes that it is in its centrality in its interior, kept and inaccessible for those of it was, it is the me, it is the reminiscence of the empire and the Castilian greatness, and this is paid very expensive, if I don't allow to enter neither to participate to those that I want that they are my nation, like I will allow to enter or I will come out to give to those of behind the Pyrenees. 

I insist in that don't want that this sounds to recrimination, on the part of a Catalan and Spanish toward the imperial Castile, the history, history is, and you cannot change, but it is necessary to make that the history is passed, and don't present by no means future, it is necessary to change Spain like be and quick, it is necessary to begin to create non alone ideas for our country, but Europe it stops and for the world, it is necessary to stop to look at you to the navel it is necessary to leave to present plans, proposals, it is necessary to speak English mainly our rulers, we cannot continue showing to our world differences for very important that they are, the world it works as him he chooses I don't eat you want.   

Let us change the country, let us look to the world another time and let us see, at the moment the countries that command the world evolution are basically of two types one: Absolutist and centralized to not being able to but, CHINESE, and the other ones open and democratic with government's Federalists systems, USA, Germany, Brazil, then somewhere around the things should go, let us choose a road and let us prove that such, me that if Chinese would not choose, because they believe that they are this way because them alone they are a world. 

Let us restructure Spain, let us leave behind of glorious past, let us let that each one is each one, let us contain in a non centralist government, let us govern without the obligation of taking the same coffee so that we seem all equals, they don't salt this way initiatives, because all wait that he gets ready it that of the center, that is to say the government, and it doesn't change this way a country, neither new solutions are given to new problems, and if there are not solutions inside of, of it was they will come and they will impose them to you. 

ESPAÑA DEMASIADA HISTORIA PARA NO SER NADA



Esta es la gran paradoja de España, después de tantos siglos, de tantas conquistas, de tantos reyes, de tantas guerras, de dos republicas, de una dictadura y de una incipiente democracia, no es nada, no pinta nada, no se hace sentir, no tiene influencia alguna, ni nada que enseñar, sigue tan aislada de Europa y del concierto mundial como siempre lo ha estado en la era moderna. Es digno de pararse a estudiar este hecho, que nos pasa, llego un momento histórico en que en el Imperio de España no se ponía el sol, y de pronto se nublo y adiós la grandeza de España.

Porque no nos engañemos, actualmente no somos nada, en el G-8-10-20… estamos invitados solamente, en el Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU figuramos en convivencia con otros países, es decir nunca hemos sido miembro permanente como Francia por ejemplo, por lo demás en la ONU figuramos como miembros del montón, como lo están Zimbabue o Costa de Marfil por decir algo. Que nos pasa o que nos ha pasado que hemos hecho mal.

Posiblemente hemos pecado de orgullosos e insolidarios, no henos participado en los acontecimientos europeos importantes, ni en la primera gran guerra europea, ni en la segunda guerra mundial. Y esto es evidente nos aisló, porque mientras las naciones de Europa y los EEUU luchaban por liberar nuestro continente del absolutismo Naci que intentaba dominarlo, nosotros estábamos detrás de los Pirineos sin querer hacer nada, independientemente del hecho que nosotros en nuestro país, ya tuviéramos nuestro nacionalismo dictatorial instalado, lo cierto es que este episodio, creo yo, reafirmo definitivamente nuestro aislamiento, primero querido y defendido por nuestros reyes y políticos antepasados,  luego impuesto por el mundo occidental a España, y su dictadura y ahora mantenido sin saber muy bien porque.

Esta situación debe de cambiarse, debemos encontrar la solución, algo funciona mal en nuestro país, que nos impide expandirnos, ser alguien en el concierto mundial, he comparado un hecho que me preocupa, y que no quiero aceptar como causa irremediable, es la situación geográfica, si contemplamos Europa, vemos que la parte  Sur mediterránea, es la más desapegada del continente, la más pobre, la menos influyente, y curiosamente también la más cargada de historia, Grecia, Italia (excepto el norte), Portugal y los Balcanes. Esto es un hecho, pero hoy esto no puede ser la causa del problema porque si lo es no tendríamos solución.

Para mí el problema de España, es su propio desequilibrio interno, y que se niega constantemente por la clase política dominante desde siempre, y por favor que no se me entienda mal, España es en realidad Castilla, y lo demás son, como lo diría yo para no ofender sensibilidades, pueblos súbditos del reino de Castilla primero, provincianos después, y nacionalistas ahora, pero nunca han tenido derechos ni importancia para la elite gobernante centralista. Es decir España empieza por encerrarse en sí misma, su poder cree que está en su centralidad en su interior, guardado e inaccesible para los de fuera, es el yo, es la reminiscencia del imperio y la grandeza Castellana, y esto se paga muy caro, si no dejo entrar ni participar a los que quiero que sean mi nación, como voy a dejar entrar o voy a salir yo a dar a los de detrás de los Pirineos.

Insisto en que no quiero que esto suene a recriminación, por parte de un catalán y español hacia la Castilla imperial, la historia, historia es, y no se puede cambiar, pero hay que hacer que la historia sea pasado, y no presente ni mucho menos futuro, hay que cambiar España como sea y rápido, hay que empezar a crear ideas no solo para nuestro país, sino para Europa y para el mundo, hay que dejar de mirarse al ombligo hay que salir a presentar planes, propuestas, hay que hablar inglés principalmente nuestros gobernantes, no podemos seguir mostrando al mundo nuestras diferencias por muy importantes que sean, el mundo funciona como él elige  no como quieres tú. 

Cambiemos el país, miremos al mundo otra vez y veamos, actualmente los países que comandan la evolución mundial son básicamente de dos tipos uno: Absolutista y centralizado a no poder mas, CHINA, y los otros abiertos y democráticos con sistemas de gobierno Federalistas, EEUU, Alemania, Brasil, luego por ahí deben ir las cosas, elijamos un camino y probemos que tal, yo eso si no escogería el Chino, porque ellos creo que son así porque ellos solos son un mundo.

Reestructuremos España, dejémonos de gloriosos pasados, dejemos que cada uno sea cada cual, agrupémonos en un gobierno no centralista, gobernémonos sin la obligación del tomar el mismo café para que parezcamos todos iguales, así no salen iniciativas, porque todos esperan que se lo arregle el del centro, es decir el gobierno, y así no cambia un país, ni se dan soluciones nuevas a nuevos problemas, y si no hay soluciones dentro, de fuera vendrán y te las impondrán.

viernes, 2 de marzo de 2012

THE GOVERNMENT, THE DEFICIT AND THE UNEMPLOYMENT (THE GOOD, THE UGLY, AND THE BAD)



The Government's president, "The good" one has revealed the deficit figure in Brussels in the wheel of later press to the meeting of the European Council. Their representation has been to the purest style "Clint Eastwood" without hurries dominating with the look the scenario and a defiant point because not to tell it its sentence - I have not told them anything in the meeting to the partners, this decides it the Spaniards and you are the first ones in finding out - it has sounded as marked while the good one blows the mouth of the canyon of its revolver after making a quick shot to an imaginary target. 

The Council of Secretaries to the unison parapet ado after the “OK Corral” waited its moment to leave to scene to complete the bereavement and finally they have left shooting bullets to right and left, they have approved this Friday the expense roof and the square macro that will serve as base to elaborate the Budgets of the year 2012. The most outstanding figures for this year: a contraction of the GDP of 1,7%, a public deficit (The Ugly) of 5,85% of the GDP and an unemployment of 24,3% (He authenticates Bad).   

The valuation of these data supposes an extra adjustment of about 12.000 million Eurus this year in the Spanish economy (in front of the 26.000 millions that he would have to have carried out that is to say with the objective of 4,4% he/she shortens the adjustment some 14.000 millions of €), the foreseen cutting ascends this way to a total of 27.000 millions of €. at the moment, this substantial increment is of 80% more than the quantity already approved in December the effort it is not anything, the Executive he has not given hints of how he will be carried out the adjustment, but the minister of Treasury has denied that they will go up the social rates neither the taxes. Also, it has assured that the benefits for unemployment will stay in the current situation, as well as the extension of 420 Eurus for those who drain the benefit. 
 

On the other hand, the Government's vice-president, Soraya Sáenz of Santamaría has detailed that the deficit will be in the following way in the different administrations: the State 4%, the Social security in balance (0%), the autonomous communities 1,5% and the local corporations 0,3%. Sáenz of Santamaría has also announced that the forecast of the Executive's GDP is that the economy will contract this year -1,7%, a figure that coincides with the one presented in January by the International Monetary Fund. 

Also, the government begins to have clear that the one authenticates bad of the movie it is the unemployment and they manifest that the thing will go to worse, the forecast for the labor market is that 630.000 employments more east exercise are destroyed and the unemployment rate arrives to 24,3%. This is the great drama as much as 70.000 million Eurus year it is almost as drying three times the deficit that we would have to reduce this it is the damned departure you imagine alone with reducing to 12% in half that is to say the unemployment the Spanish economy he gives a brutal turn this it is the war this it is the bereavement in the government's from Spain "OK Corral." 

The minister of Economy, Luis De Guindos, it has assured that it is a realistic square in their positions and hypothesis; this Government doesn't want to generate false expectations "The four trimester of 2011 it was of negative growth; that will stay two more" trimesters at least. The four trimester would already have a more stabilized" evolution, he has added some technical aspects as that the domestic demand will subtract 4,6 points to the economic growth; the exports will increase 3,4% and the external sector will compensate in 2,9 points the fall of the national demand, they already come it is necessary to catch the rifles and to be protected after the barriers and to defend the strong one, like be. 

On the other hand, the minister of Treasury, Cristóbal Montoro, he has commented that there will be a descent of the activity, but in 2012 prevue some similar revenues to those of 2011 thanks to the ascent of taxes. Also, Montoro has explained that the public expense will decrease 4,7%, until the 118.565 million Eurus. Concretely, the expense of the ministries will decrease 12,5%. 

The challenge is big, not alone for us the Spaniards that I fear myself that we will have to learn how to not entering a lot for the means, like we always make, undoubtedly this time we run the risk that they put us a bullet in the bottom, because the bereavement is to death. Alone we lack to see like they will have taken it to him the other gunmen friends this posture change, when present Spain their program of stability in April, with the content of the budgets and all the reformations, the European Commission and the international investors will recognize the effort that is making the Government and the Spanish society and perhaps they applaud us and they defend in front of the enemy. 

The fight is served, but they lacked bullets and many, it doesn't convince me that single 35.000 millions to pay late invoices, reactivate the industry and the activity a lot, because this quantity is already worn-out, and for sure in many cases to the banks to liquidate obtained credits and some conquered ones, I fear myself that what will happen with this injection of money, will be that he/she won't become liquidity like prevue the government, but rather it will disappear in the banks and in many closings for jubilation, or fatigue of small companies that now stay from necessity. 

I want in this point to toss a small pitcher of cold water to the government's plans, it is necessary to look for liquidity again stamp, so that the industrial production is reactivated and of services in Spain, this point has not seen it maybe it is necessary to wait but not a lot, because 70.000 millions of € for unemployment are a lot but a lot of cost, encounter to lack a plan of disinvestment of properties and public infrastructures is the only way to create two effects, to enter new money and to take off costs of maintenances and bad administration of many of them.