THE GOVERNMENT, THE DEFICIT AND THE UNEMPLOYMENT (THE GOOD, THE UGLY, AND THE BAD)

The Government's president, "The good" one has revealed the deficit figure in Brussels in the wheel of later press to the meeting of the European Council. Their representation has been to the purest style "Clint Eastwood" without hurries dominating with the look the scenario and a defiant point because not to tell it its sentence - I have not told them anything in the meeting to the partners, this decides it the Spaniards and you are the first ones in finding out - it has sounded as marked while the good one blows the mouth of the canyon of its revolver after making a quick shot to an imaginary target. 

The Council of Secretaries to the unison parapet ado after the “OK Corral” waited its moment to leave to scene to complete the bereavement and finally they have left shooting bullets to right and left, they have approved this Friday the expense roof and the square macro that will serve as base to elaborate the Budgets of the year 2012. The most outstanding figures for this year: a contraction of the GDP of 1,7%, a public deficit (The Ugly) of 5,85% of the GDP and an unemployment of 24,3% (He authenticates Bad).   

The valuation of these data supposes an extra adjustment of about 12.000 million Eurus this year in the Spanish economy (in front of the 26.000 millions that he would have to have carried out that is to say with the objective of 4,4% he/she shortens the adjustment some 14.000 millions of €), the foreseen cutting ascends this way to a total of 27.000 millions of €. at the moment, this substantial increment is of 80% more than the quantity already approved in December the effort it is not anything, the Executive he has not given hints of how he will be carried out the adjustment, but the minister of Treasury has denied that they will go up the social rates neither the taxes. Also, it has assured that the benefits for unemployment will stay in the current situation, as well as the extension of 420 Eurus for those who drain the benefit. 

 

On the other hand, the Government's vice-president, Soraya Sáenz of Santamaría has detailed that the deficit will be in the following way in the different administrations: the State 4%, the Social security in balance (0%), the autonomous communities 1,5% and the local corporations 0,3%. Sáenz of Santamaría has also announced that the forecast of the Executive's GDP is that the economy will contract this year -1,7%, a figure that coincides with the one presented in January by the International Monetary Fund. 

Also, the government begins to have clear that the one authenticates bad of the movie it is the unemployment and they manifest that the thing will go to worse, the forecast for the labor market is that 630.000 employments more east exercise are destroyed and the unemployment rate arrives to 24,3%. This is the great drama as much as 70.000 million Eurus year it is almost as drying three times the deficit that we would have to reduce this it is the damned departure you imagine alone with reducing to 12% in half that is to say the unemployment the Spanish economy he gives a brutal turn this it is the war this it is the bereavement in the government's from Spain "OK Corral." 

The minister of Economy, Luis De Guindos, it has assured that it is a realistic square in their positions and hypothesis; this Government doesn't want to generate false expectations "The four trimester of 2011 it was of negative growth; that will stay two more" trimesters at least. The four trimester would already have a more stabilized" evolution, he has added some technical aspects as that the domestic demand will subtract 4,6 points to the economic growth; the exports will increase 3,4% and the external sector will compensate in 2,9 points the fall of the national demand, they already come it is necessary to catch the rifles and to be protected after the barriers and to defend the strong one, like be. 

On the other hand, the minister of Treasury, Cristóbal Montoro, he has commented that there will be a descent of the activity, but in 2012 prevue some similar revenues to those of 2011 thanks to the ascent of taxes. Also, Montoro has explained that the public expense will decrease 4,7%, until the 118.565 million Eurus. Concretely, the expense of the ministries will decrease 12,5%. 

The challenge is big, not alone for us the Spaniards that I fear myself that we will have to learn how to not entering a lot for the means, like we always make, undoubtedly this time we run the risk that they put us a bullet in the bottom, because the bereavement is to death. Alone we lack to see like they will have taken it to him the other gunmen friends this posture change, when present Spain their program of stability in April, with the content of the budgets and all the reformations, the European Commission and the international investors will recognize the effort that is making the Government and the Spanish society and perhaps they applaud us and they defend in front of the enemy. 

The fight is served, but they lacked bullets and many, it doesn't convince me that single 35.000 millions to pay late invoices, reactivate the industry and the activity a lot, because this quantity is already worn-out, and for sure in many cases to the banks to liquidate obtained credits and some conquered ones, I fear myself that what will happen with this injection of money, will be that he/she won't become liquidity like prevue the government, but rather it will disappear in the banks and in many closings for jubilation, or fatigue of small companies that now stay from necessity. 

I want in this point to toss a small pitcher of cold water to the government's plans, it is necessary to look for liquidity again stamp, so that the industrial production is reactivated and of services in Spain, this point has not seen it maybe it is necessary to wait but not a lot, because 70.000 millions of € for unemployment are a lot but a lot of cost, encounter to lack a plan of disinvestment of properties and public infrastructures is the only way to create two effects, to enter new money and to take off costs of maintenances and bad administration of many of them.