IT IS NOT GOOD TO TRUST THE BILLS OF THE PP FOR FURTHER ON OF THE 24M.

(Reuters) - The Spanish economy could overcome the forecasts for 2015 that the Government has just revised, but they persist risks that can make more complicated the execution of the projections of growth and debt to longer term, they have said from the Independent Authority of Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF). 

I believe that the warning is more a certainty that a possibility, is impossible under the current conditions and with the uncertain future that there is, so much in the Spanish politics as in that of the UE, to pay attention to the values of growth that the government of the PP points. I believe sincerely that the government is making pure electoral campaign and he is doing us a thin favor that many that believe in him cost them expensive. 

The economy and the Spanish government, they face a difficult campaign for the reelection this year, but the government persists in his optimistic figures when the situation real today in day, it is that the security that this government continues to the front of the nation we cannot locate them beyond 25% and frankly that he announces that the economy has reached the cruise speed Of Guindos and that it will grow in next four years near three annual percent, it is a recklessness for not saying a fable to look of maintaining votes. The only thing that goes to cruise speed in the bills of the Spanish state, is the debt that he/she goes going up step to step every month and the unemployment that it ascends also, but that this braked by the marvels of bills of the state, transforming occupation per hours d work.  

There is not rhythm of growth some, everything is false the truth gives it to us the GDP that is practically anchored and the different companies of the Ibex that are all working outside of Spain, because here he doesn't move he swims at all. As consequence of this reality there is not growth he says what the government, the development ministry says it cannot invest in anything operative really, the port of Tarragona lost an enormous contract some weeks ago with Daimler, because the road width is not made between Tarragona and Barcelona and in this case I don't want to think that it is simply an act of war between the Catalan soberanismo and the Spanish nationalism, there simply are not revenues in the state nothing else that to pay interests, pensions and grants. 

But the Executive persists in his illusions and it maintains that he hopes to create two million employments at least to file the one that one of the main imbalances of his economy is considered. It is a true lack of respect to the Spaniards to say this, because it is literally impossible when last week it was given like fact that The legislature will put an end in the 2015 to 17.000 more employments that when he began, at the end of the 2011, that is to say in four years 17.000 employments have been created, even supposing that it is certain that these years have been hard, today's reality is that you can accept that they don't get lost more, but what is certain it is that they are not neither believed by what said before, the Spanish companies they have left all to work outside, because here there is not investment nothing else that to buy official buildings to price of I demolish. 

The AIReF described of reasonable the objective as growing 2,9 percent in 2015, but he said that the parameters in those that the projections are based require that they stay at the moment in the time a series of conditions favorable to the economic cycle, as a weak euro, a low petroleum, or some very favorable monetary conditions. That is to say they give for good some data that none of them depends on the Spanish executive on one hand because maybe it is not already the 2016 to the front of the country and for other because although it was it cannot assure that the euro is devaluated to the parity of the dollar, neither that the petroleum doesn't ascend to the 80 dollars that you speculates it is the new objective of prices.  

The risks that this forecast is not gotten, they are more than the securities that they are completed, the managed data don't contemplate a smaller growth in the UE, a less benign financial environment... bigger geopolitical tensions and the important ascent in the prices of the petroleum that I have mentioned before, The risks will be accentuated with the step of the time and it doesn't lack a lot for it, the disillusions can begin of here 20 days if the results of the elections local and autonomous Spaniards fade the map of Spain removing the blue color of the PP and still substituting it for other without defining. 

This certain possibility can force the PP to advance the elections to this year and also to lose them, with that to make macroeconomic scenarios is a recklessness, I insist alone comprehensible if what is sought is to attempt that they don't escape more votes of that than it is expected, reflecting a panorama fantastic foreseen by the current Government, in the years 2017 and 2018", it is as a song in the sun, to increase the GDP other 2,9 percent by 2016 and 3 percent in the two following years is apart from an utopia a fact that the surest thing is that he doesn't see it the PP like government from Spain.