GREECE DOESN'T HAVE EXIT ALONE BUT AND IF WE UNITE THE BALKAN PENINSULA

The agreement reached yesterday after 17 hours of negotiation so that Greece remained in the euro it was alone an agreement to negotiate an agreement. They are still many things that they can go bad: I reject of the partners, fight among the troika, a new depression, the fall of Tsipras or the street revolts could put an end to the unit of the Eurozone. Greece already needs money. Not alone it owes it to the European Central Bank (BCE) about 7.000 million Eurus before it finishes August and it is already doubtful with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but rather already in Greece they are not accepted in the trade the payment with alone card it is wanted effective.  

The minister of Finances of the Eurozone are negotiating the financing possibilities for Greece until you reaches a final agreement. This implies more complicated negotiations this said seems this way another thing but it is not nothing else that another credit on another bigger credit and so forth, and it is quite undoubtedly it is very difficult for any state member of the Eurozone to advance fresh money without any conditionality, basically money that would be not even a loan, but rather he would resemble a donation more thoroughly lost. 

The agreement of Monday should go at least by other seven parliaments, in a moment in that the politicians are very skeptical on giving more help to Greece. The German Bundestag should vote on Friday (supposing that Greece approves all that promised this week) and the agreement should also overcome in fact the test of the parliaments from Holland, Austria, Finland and good Slovakia those of the 19 euro included nations Greece. 

But it is that Greece will need one it removes a lot of its public debt bigger than which the partners of the Eurozone are considering. He tells this way it a confidential document from the International Monetary Fund to which has had access the agency "Reuters". The dramatic deterioration of the sustainability of the debt will make necessary one removes or I alleviate that will have to be a lot bigger than what has been considered until the moment, in the one that one also makes reference to the possible restructuring outlined by the Mechanism of European Stability (ESM). This new one formless he is carried out being based on the upgrade of the indicators 'Debt Sustainability Analysis' (DSA) that try of calculating how of sustainable it is the debt of a country according to its economic conditions. 

As the experts of the international organism explain in the document, the countries of the Eurozone will have to give a period of 30 year-old grace to Greece, including new loans and an extension of the expirations of the pending debt. He also thinks about the possibility that the countries of the Eurozone have to make fiscal transfers to Greece or to accept "big you remove in advance" of debt.  

This report was remitted the 18 members of the Eurozone at the last moment on Monday, soon after that the creditors and Athens reach a new agreement in which one doesn't speak of you remove neither restructurings of the public debt. In him he makes sure that the public debt of Greece can reach a pick of 200% on the GDP in two years, overcoming the previous forecast that placed the maximum public indebtedness in 170%. This already advances in fact it yesterday this pick he/she has already taken place because besides the deterioration of the productivity the flights of capitals and the deterioration of the tourist and commercial activity these two weeks of “corralito” they have left dry the arks of the Greek treasure. 

Everything seems to put on in against. The 'corralito' bank it is affecting gravely to the economic growth of the country. The European Commission published yesterday a document in which was shown that the main indicators of trust of the Greek economy have collapsed. Also, the trade retailer, except for the foods and of the gasoil, he/she has collapsed in until 70%, he told it yesterday in my blog: In some macroeconomic data Greece is located with a GDP / capita of 16.300 Eurus what would correspond to a national GDP of 185 thousand million Eurus, is evident that it is impossible to continue the Greek debt it already overcomes 200% of the GDP, of there you remove them that Tsipras requests and the same reason is the one that forces the UE to not accepting them. 

Because it is not one it removes to the use, what is necessary serious to absorb the debt completely, it cannot think about lacks of 30años they are impossible actions 30años they are from 6 to 7 legislatures of non-alone government in Greece but in the creditors, this is wing he practices impossible to outline because a country is a sovereign entity that is he impossible the execution of the agreements or promises that he makes today a government to assure it is that in a country it can happen of all included one a civil war that changes it completely. 

He said yesterday that the only exits that I continue seeing for Greece are that he leaves the Eurozone or that can be annexed another European nation able to offer the covering of the debt with one it removes of the same one as if was a payment on the part of the other countries for the solution of the problem, that is to say Greece, would have to stop to be sovereign and a region or federation or any figure juridical-politics that allows to apply this solution to become. In the serious bottom to outline a liquidation for absorption, like one makes in a company that breaks and it is absorbed or bought by one of the creditors you compete them. 

The problem that I see in this solution is that Greece is in an end of Europe and surrounded by some countries that evidently are not able to for if same to be annexed Greece none of them. But if it would be possible that the UE proposed a position of creation of the Balkan Federal Republic following the geographical formation of the own peninsula of the Balkans. A geopolitical development of this span and importance from the point of view geostrategic and integrative European if it would be worthwhile to invest hundreds of thousands of millions of Eurus including the unpayable debt of Greece of course. I know that it is an exit that seems impossible but if one thinks well it is to complete the Western Europe. If we don't make it we can be that one day makes it Russia.