BECAUSE THEY DETERMINE TO COLLAPSE TO GREECE AND THE EURO

The Greek Government and the representatives of the international creditors begin tomorrow Tuesday the negotiations for a third Greek rescue that the Executive Hellenic wait to conclude of here at August 18, and that they will include a series of thorny topics. "The teams of technicians will have tomorrow meetings in the Bank of Greece and, maybe, in the General Secretary of Bills", he declared “Efe” a source of the ministry of Finances that added that the bosses of the delegations will arrive in Athens in next days, "to more to take the weekend." 

The troika is also no longer such, now it is a quartet, the technical squares formed by the European Commission (CE), the European Central Bank (BCE), the European Mechanism of Stability (MEDE) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) they are already in Athens and they have even carried out already some conversations. Partly it is logical, if they go increasing the rescues is it also logical that the rescuers increase (?). Today he read an article in that the author wondered in the one enunciated why the Greek rescues collapse more the Greek economy. My answer is clear, because the rescues already weigh more than the Greek economy and they don't allow it to leave to it floats. 

The negotiation, according to sources of the ministry of Finances, will be developed with several work groups working in parallel that they will examine the financial situation, the problem of the pensions, the labor relationships, the opening of the market of products and other matters agreed in the summit of the Eurozone the past July 12. The evaluation of the financial situation is one of the crucial points of this negotiation, because the estimates on the impact of the lingering closing of banks about the economy force to revise the forecasts of the economic growth. 

This apart from being a loss of time, is a form of minimizing the Greek government another time, because everybody knows that the situation of Greece is chaotic it is not necessary to evaluate it. According to data of the CE mentioned by the local means, after the imposition of the capital controls four weeks ago is expected that the gross interior product registers this year a fall of at least 4%, in front of a growth of 0,5% calculated initially. Under these conditions the Government's objective for a primary surplus of 1% this year is unreachable, while there are estimates that included a primary deficit of 1%. 

The primary surplus for 2015, 2016 and 2017 are part of the negotiation. It is evident that to the moneylenders it interests them to get it, because it would be the verification that there are recovery and some year they will be been able to return part of the rescues, but I fear myself that the reality that is very obstinate, will give to the fret with this speculation. In 2018 the most probable thing is that Greece has eaten up the third rescue and this requesting a room, if it is that the euro area continues in foot, thing that I doubt then if the FDA finally goes up the interest of the money it USA, all the Eurus will leave running to take refuge in the Dollar. 

The Greek Government's objective is at most late to reach an agreement with the quartet up to August 18, to avoid a new loan bridge that would allow him to pay its obligations with the BCE that conquer August 20, but it would also be tied to new prerequisites that would enlarge the fissure in the parliamentary group of Syriza. The first two legal packages already tripped with the rejection of more than a thirty of deputies of Syriza and the Government got his approval in the alone Parliament thanks to the back of the opposition. 

To be able to reach an agreement, the Government should make new painful commitments, as the revision of all the laws approved "unilaterally" in the last six months, the premature jubilations and the elimination from the discounts to the gasoil and of the tax on the reduced rent that they have the farmers, absurd truth is that these measures are illogical that he really takes them a political party as Syriza, in my opinion although he says that if to everything, it cannot be that it completes it unless it gives up to govern Greece. Which will the following step be?