I FIND OPPORTUNE TO REISSUE WHAT ALREADY SAID IN JANUARY

Tuesday, January 27 2015 

IT IS UNAVOIDABLE GREECE IT ACTIVATED THE EUROPEAN UNION TO DOS SPEEDS     

It means the wide victory of the Party Syriza that will take place a confrontation inevitably between Athens and their worthy of the UE and the IMF. The breach that separates its creditors' Syriza is very wide, for what won't be easy to reduce it. Short term, to the two parts it will interest them to enlarge the rescue of Greece beyond February 28, their expiration date, but I don't see neither the logic neither the necessity to enlarge it much further on, so then they will take definitive measures.    

The problem belongs to all acquaintance the whole Greek debt it is in hands of the UE and therefore of the suffering ones European, you, me and German of Bavaria that he sells life insurance. This is this way because when one says that the Spanish state or German or the Belgian has so many thousands of millions of Eurus of Greek debt the reality is that they are the suffering Spaniards the Germans or the Belgian the one that has to finance it and in the worst in the cases to pay and this is the question they have the governments of the UE the imperium of forgiving my debt we don't made a mistake in this the governments they don't have money they collect it of her inhabitants. 

It is for that reason that the question is difficult but it is necessary to find a solution inevitably and I believe me that it is not in fact to continue lengthening the terms of the unavoidable thing. In my opinion today the situation of Greece is so desperate economically and socially that I believe that it is the moment to break the situation of commitment completely because he can no longer harm more. However if it continues lengthening the so much agony of the Greeks as of the other Europeans each action each loan each NON solution the wrong increased to be of all. 

Greece needs other solutions that they are not in fact those that it proposes Germany and Brussels the measures of austerity they are not viable in a country where there is not possibility some of saving, Greece spends a lot more than what enters in its GDP this not alone he makes that it cannot assume the payment of more foreign debt, but rather it also produces internally it for itself. 

I already exposed once it, the German measures are good for Germany and their influence area, because they are some countries that if they reduce their expense they don't reduce their revenues and therefore they save.  And they can be located I eat he has already made it Germany in a deficit zero or almost positive.    

But this measure is impossible to impose in countries where its fiscal balance of the taxes of the civic consumption depends, more than of the managerial and commercial taxes, in these countries if you clip or you apply austerity, you clip the revenues of the country at the same time what takes place the I don't pay of the debt and the creation of more debt to cover the budgetary deficit. 

In the current situation to enlarge the term to alone Greece would serve so that so much Alexis Tsipras, leader of Syriza, as his creditors won time, and they thought about how to reach a commitment to longer term avoiding the exit of Greece of the Eurozone, if it is what you/they want both (debtor and creditors) no government of the Eurozone possibly wants this result, I neither eat they want it most of the Greeks for what Tsipras would assume a great risk adopting measures that unchained an exit of the euro. 

But let us be clear because Syriza this prisoner of the reality and it is also simply he then since UE because they don't have much more time. Greece has slope the payment of 4.300 million Eurus in March and more than 6.000 million Eurus in July and August. If Syriza doesn't decide to incur in unpaid, he will need its moneylenders' help, a new credit line and that the BCE injects money to the Greek banks, and it is not necessary to say that this means to enlarge the problem. 

It doesn't seem that there are many more possibilities, mainly because the German Government opposes himself flatly to any agreement of it removes or pardon of the Greek debt that supports and it is ascended to more than 60.000 million Eurus. Also, in this sense, the chancellor Angela Merkel knows that it has the back of the German electorate. And here the true danger takes place it is certain that as much the Germans as all the Nordic Europeans cannot forgive neither to accept the Greek trap and positions to the truth neither the Spaniard neither the Italian neither the Portuguese to say.   

This is very serious because nobody remembers or they didn't tell it to him in their moment that their governments accepted all the fiscal chicaneries presented by the countries of the south so that these enters in the Europe of Euro today it is seen that that was an error in fact it was it the EURO and it was it because the political leaders (THAT ARE NOT ECONOMISTS) they thought that a common currency would make a common Europe maintaining the national independence of each country at the same time. 

Tremendous error the result is just the opposite the euro Europe it has separated in two halves a one that can be financed the euro and the other one the one that the euro has sunk it in the firmest in the miseries. Today is easy to foresee that or this intersects of root or the poor Europe was taken to the well from the misery to the rich Europe because the fiscal and economic imbalance among both it is in salvable, and socially this situation is unjust and intolerable.  

It is not necessary to me to understand another possibility that to create that Europe that Merkel foresaw the Europe of two speeds already about three years ago that me today an Europe of two economies would say that of the German euro and the other one and there is not more solution than to accept it the Europe of the north will admit this way never to thoroughly finance the imbalances of the Europe of the south lost. 

The solution is that an Europe of the south is formed with an in agreement economy to its reality and with a south" "euro with a value of change with regard to the euro of more or less 0,80% on the euro that is to say 1euro would be worth 1.20 south euro, this would get suddenly that the south of Europe was more competitive for the Europe of the north than many companies of the north they transferred factories to the since south the wages they would be suddenly 20% cheaper the products of the South they would be equally 20% cheaper with that that maybe those of the north would think that we would be no longer so bad those of the south. 

For the Europe of the south this would put more in the reality their economies, in front of the international markets it could compete better and the reactivation of its economies would be a reality its foreign currency it could fluctuate of so much value in front of its homonymous of the north as in the markets of international foreign currencies and who knows it could arrive the day that the parity between both Eurus were so near that can really speak another time of an unique euro and an European Union. If it is not there is not this way more remedy than or the Europe of the north buys the debt and with it to the Europe of the south or we separate and we tie ourselves to cakes like so many times we have made during the history.