ON THE CONTRARY THAT THE SPANISH GOVERNMENT WILL THINK OF OUR FUTURE IN PESETAS

If all continuous one this way in the area euro, and Spain persists in its political and social decontrol this will necessarily bear, to be left the unique currency. It is a new and feared scenario that it would affect to the whole country. Maybe because the most probable thing is that it would affect some more than they would take the same one on the way to abandoning an economy outside of their real reach, thinking of that possibility has believed opportune to review and to analyze the economic facets that would be affected and like they would be the main consequences. 

In the economies of the countries that decided it, the Euro to leave place to a new foreign currency that possibly serious in almost all the cases the previous one, remember you that in Spain for example is still possible to change pesetas in the Bank of Spain and it is known that there are hidden thousands of millions somewhere around, so in Spain hypothetically would return again to the Peseta, or a new Shield in Portugal, or to a new Drachma in the event of Greece. The new currencies would possibly reborn devaluated with regard to the foreign currencies we say strong as the euro or the dollar.  

But let us still be not alarmed because we see the Peseta, you change for the euro to 166,386 Ptas. / € that is to say a peseta you values at 0,006 of euro this change he took place with a parameter that continues in validity that is the Dollar it USA and that in January 1 the 2002 he/she had a parity of 0,9038 dollars that is to say something below the parity 1 x 1, at the present time and like average, the euro is in 1, 30 dollars that which indicates that we have revalued the euro 30,5%. Like to this fact Spain has collaborated we can say that today the Peseta would be revalued following the parity with the euro to a value of 0, 0079 dollars it USES / Ptas. Said a dollar otherwise it would be worth 126.582 Ptas. This is the change that theoretically it would govern to day of today and although it is not used to the practice, if it exists in the pursuits of values of foreign currencies I activate. 

Starting from here and supposing that he took the foreign currency dollar like pattern should settle down the parity Ptas. $It USES he would be necessary to make two things a to choose a new peseta that was more governable this one could make transforming the peseta into a new equivalent monetary unit to 100 pesetas, with that which we would be I relent of 1,2658 Ptas. / 1 $it USES starting from here the market and the government would appreciate or it would depreciate the new foreign currency according to his interests and that of the financial markets. Immediately and following my theory would devaluate the Ptas. 30% and he would leave it in a parity of 1,65 Ptas. / $ USA this it would produce reactivation automatically for the increase of competitiveness of our products.  

With this change we would get more competitive exports, abroad they would be necessary them less Eurus or dollars to buy our products. A similar effect would take place in the tourism. This at the moment would go very well since to Spain in tourism we are a world power. Another very important factor for our battered economy like it is the unemployment it would be very favored for this action, because as the main factories with important manpower storing are of multinational character they would be suddenly under better conditions in front of the other European factories. The des localizations of signatures as Sony Sharp Yamaha and others had not been necessary because our salaries would make comfortable to those of the Europe of the east, And for example paying salaries in Ptas. The mark SEAT would possibly pass to be more competitive for WW than the Czech Skoda  

At the same time, we would have to support more expensive imports: the cared products would be more expensive. As Spain it cares all the petroleum and the gas that we consume, practically the energy and the transport they would be shot of price. But it would be not necessarily harmful completely. Obligatorily he would decrease the consumption of external products and the internal consumption would be nationalized, increasing the production of national products. All the imports of matters cousins would rise in price in function of the real devaluation of the new currency, he would be necessary to make a study because maybe the final cost of our scale of payments would not be unbalanced as much as it can be thought, because against the increase of import costs, there would be the increment of revenues mainly for export and tourism if with the IVA in 21% although was like Montoro says at the moment forever. 

The terrible Inflation not necessarily has to be given, for the foreign currency change, an inflationary scenario. It would depend here on the types of interest that fixes the Bank Of Spain, he would be necessary to know that politics of interest of the money would adopt me calculation that we would leave at the 5,5 / 6.% of interest. This should allow to maintain an inflation of between 3,5 and 4% as first objective. Regarding the external financing the Spanish debt imagines that they would follow the differentials that it maintains with the German sovereign debt this never changed already it was this way before now and while Germany is Germany it didn't change. 

The banking would restrict during a time the credit, since it would be more conditioned to the external financing that compensates the lack of internal saving. But this would be corrected as you reactivate the productivity in the country. With more expensive money, of more difficult access and with more risk in the credit operations the interests of loans to the consumption would grow for families and companies. But I don't believe that the situation went to worse than the one that there is now, the small banks would have less since pressure they would move but internally and better, their clients would have less possibilities to go outside so they would probably increase its business of national character, the two big Spanish banks BBVA and Santander neither he/she would make them tickle 75% of its business it is already outside of this problem, they would simply take its power station of operations to the most advantageous country and they would continue acting as if such a thing.  

The state would have problems to be financed in the debt markets. That would depend that is to say on the conditions of the accounting of the state of the countable deficit of the Spanish state, in percentage if he moves in the same current parameters that it would improve them sure, and also of the additional garantáis of the Spanish treasure, foreign currencies, gold, etc.asi like of their new GDP.  

The banking would have to pay its debts in the international markets in Eurus, or dollars it USES this it is not any problem if the new Ptas are included. In the market of convertible foreign currencies in this situation the state or the Spanish banks should pay in Ptas. The equivalent amount to the result of applying the monetary parities regarding Eurus in Dollars in Swiss Francs and in the foreign currencies that quote in the market of changes we would no longer be forced to the Euro, remember that we have abandoned him, our debtors would pay with the foreign currencies of their election that in turn would contribute reservations to our national treasure it is alone question of equivalences, it would not alter the risk more than now if the figures of change are clear. 

One of the risks that more one adduces in these suppositions it is the Flight of capitals: as you he is already seeing so I don't believe that there is a lot but capital that to take out, that that has of course for savings tried to put them safe, in Eurus, or in dollars abroad. But this situation is not preoccupant in the current situation, because we don't speak of crash of the country, but of a planned exit of the economy of the euro that immobilizes us. The capitals if they would be a little disoriented but I have already said before that the big capitals and financial and industrial entities, have more resources it was already that here, and I will tell them more I think that it would alleviate them not to depend so much of the Spanish market.  

And I am not so sure of that of the flights of capitals, the one that you begins to disintegrate the area euro, doesn't find me him to be in fact a guarantee so that he escapes the capital toward her, and if one makes a good action of offer of guaranteed products and with good profitability it sews that the minister Of Guindos understands very much we would already see that it would happen. You look I see it totally on the contrary and I don't mean with this that we leave the euro. But that that if I tell them it is that to the Europe of the Euro it doesn't scare them that to Greece, Portugal, and Spain, they had to throw of the Euro. What they worry about is that we leave us voluntarily the euro arts of so many pressures and it lacks of results for our economy and we continued we worked the same as before.