viernes, 27 de julio de 2012

THE UNEMPLOYMENT IN SPAIN NON ALONE IS FOR THE CRISIS IT IS STRUCTURAL AND IT CAN BE SYSTEMIC


The situation of the unemployment of Spain is unnatural and you cannot continue hiding the situation, because of maintaining the theory that the politicians adduce, that it is the economic crisis it is the causing of the same one, he won't be able to never get ready. The economic crisis if he has an incidence in the sense that for their cause you the economic structure on that the growth too much of Spain was based collapses. To demonstrate my theory and that my readers see it graphically, I have made the graph that is shown next.  

In this graph one can observe that our half level of unemployment is in a fringe of between the 10 and 20 percent according to the data accumulated from 1980, so the thing that first it jumps visible, it is that these figures so outside of the European stocking are the normal ones in our country, this behavior line presents an inferior tip concretely to 10% 8% among the triennium 2004/2007 that it was really the triennium of gold of the Spanish economy.  

In this point another important variable converges to understand the current situation, if they look at the superior lines of the graph they will be reflected the demographic evolution in Spain in the same periods, in the graph this chapter is presented in two lines a green one that is the process we could call of natural growth, and another in red that is the consequence of an increase forced by the limitless growth and desire of wealth of the Spanish economy. At this time we show off of being 47 million Spaniards, when the logical thing had been to be 42 millions, the jump in demography happens in the first decade of this century and it is brutal, the two previous decades that is to say the 80 and the 90 you grew to rhythm of 1,8 million inhabitants per decade and in the decade 2000/2010 you grew in 5,9 millions, take out yourselves its conclusions.  

They already come it the situation of the Spanish unemployment, it is not only direct cause of the European stop economic, if it doesn't cause of the artificial imbalance of two concepts. A. - The terrible planning of the industrial development of Spain that I base their growth on the construction, and B. - The demographic imbalance that I cause, and that now no matter how much we want, we won't end up growing enough to absorb so much manpower as we have. If in these moments in Spain has a logical population of 42 million inhabitants, the unemployment would possibly be being about 17% it calculates that it would maintain us inside the Spanish structural" "normality.  

I say that of the normality, because the curve of the reflective Spanish unemployment with accuracy the historical moments, it ascends in the periods of the crisis of the 80, it lowers in the moment of the entrance in the European community 1986 and until the celebration of the Olympiads in Barcelona, passing the euphoria ascends another time until almost 19% in 1994 for the stop that suffered the Spanish economy after the games, and the projects of infrastructures carried out by Felipe González socialists, it begins again to get off the hand of the political change carried out by the PP of Aznar, although surprisingly the lowest tip happens to Zapatero socialist government that coincides with the Bum of the construction, and from this moment until today the total debacle, like they come almost everything he/she has explanation.  

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