martes, 3 de julio de 2012

WE NO LONGER HAVE LEFT IN FOOT NEITHER THE AXIS PARIS BERLIN THERE ALREADY IS NOT ANY YOU SUSTAIN FOR THE EURO.

Today we read in the economic press that France should already assume urgently drastic reductions of its national deficit, to François Hollande is finished making from counterbalance to the politicians of Merkel, France the same as all the countries that are part of the euro group, except Germany, it is in frank economic depreciation, no one understands because its president maneuvered in the meeting of Brussels with the idea of a reactivation plan, it was not europeísmo it was pure maneuver of distraction to happen on tiptoe and to look of getting something of money, for his economy. 

Bad, very bad, it is the situation from the euro group to my way of seeing irreversible under the current general conditions in that they are the economies of which form it, those that follow me they know that I am iterative in the comment that the euro should devaluate a lot and suddenly, not little by little and for initiative of the international markets, if not once and for all and devaluated by the agreement BCE with the countries that are provided of this foreign currency. If this is not made soon, the euro put an end to its existence and with that of the euro group besides. 

The politics economic European is clear that it doesn't exist, the same as the financial one, the bank, and much less has not existed the politics, this reality likes or not, he has made that the CE was unwrapped without order neither I concert during the last 20 years, in fact from the German reunification in the years 1989/90. This fact is the culprit of the imbalance of the economy of the UE, maybe it has been it for accident or for forecast lack or he can that also for a great German ability, be as was it is the factor of imbalance that today has brought us until here. 

The decision of the reunification was answered tremendously by many countries and its politicians, Great Britain for example with its iron lady Margaret Teacher, the USA with the ineffable George Busch, saw a certain danger in it, however Mitterrand's France saw it necessary he didn't stop to be an added from socialism to the classic Germany. Total in spite of the controversies the certain thing is that it was made and the European Union suddenly, assumed a new country, a new Germany that it was necessary to maintain it and to help her, but of that help, alone you takes advantage of the own Germany he obtained cheap manpower, he received grants, and without pause it was assimilating the manpower and the economic helps, at the end the reunified Germany became the most important industrial pole in Europe, in fact Europe had emptied of industry to leave it in hands of Germany so that it absorbed the enormous quantity of workers from the Democratic Germany. 

The USA and Great Britain were right; the reunification caused an effect of imbalance in the political and economic composition of the nations of the UE. And it doesn't finish the disaster here, with the industrialization the reunification also gives cause to the idea of the unique currency, Germany is forced to unify its two "marks" in one, so that it leaves very well since in spite of it the mark it is imposed as the strongest foreign currency in Europe, this makes that from Germany it is urged to still create a "mark" stronger, the Euro, and I already eat in that near one 1990/2000 the economic domain of Germany it was total, the UE doesn't have more remedy than to accept because you go that if he doesn't make it the foreign currencies of France, Italy, Spain, etc. every time they will have less value. 

And waste away this way the disaster in that we have ended now, we have a foreign currency that alone Germany can maintain because it is the only one that has the productive base able to create some positive, that simple and logical commercial deficits, the Euro it is untenable in its current value on the part of France, Italy, Spain and the other ones, these economies cannot make he swims at all to remedy it no matter how much they clip and clip expenses because it is a problem of revenues and not of expenses, so there is not another solution that to go down him the smoke to the euro, so that it is since of course a foreign currency within reach of economies that move below the German between a 25 and 30%, Germany won't be able to maintain her alone to the euro group, this is what is happening. 

The solution to this whole tangle is not another that to balance the economic reality and for it, or they put on all the economies at a level of similar productivity, or he descends the level of the value of the foreign currency that they should sustain, and there is not another form, if this is not taken to term in few months, maximum six, the euro group will come undone and the euro will die without a doubt some, the euro group it should put the euro at a level of parity of the dollar or even to start up again until 5% lower, it would be the only way that Europe pulls up its productivity strongly before the international market, and at the same time clips its internal consumption when having to be supplied of autochthonous products because of the disadvantage of prices with the import. 

The scales of payments of the countries would recover and in the community space it would be reactivated the internal trade and the manpower necessity. This is not easy to make but I assure them that there is not another way, he doesn't like this to Germany because evidently her if it would lower their potential, since their own competition would arise in the breast of the euro group, but that one can make, or Germany covers the necessities of its neighbors that are at the same time a great part of its market, or this market dies with what at the end the result is the same one you finishes the euro and the UE.   

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