SPAIN ALSO HAS ITS HILL OF JANUARY AND IT WILL LAST HIM 12 MONTHS

Spain needs to place 230.000 million Eurus approximately in debt this year, that good to first Spain he gives the turn to the leaf of the calendar and he is with which he needs to generate debt for the value indexed it is also that of these alone 230,000 millions 71,000 are it in debt concept we say new the rest or they are interests or paying-offs of previous or old debt. 

At the moment nevertheless the program of financing of Spain for 2013 could not have a better beginning. The treasure had foreseen to capture 5.000 million debt Eurus and it overcame its objective, placing 5.800 million Eurus to a very inferior profitability to the previous emissions of debt of the same characteristics. As a result, the profitability of the Spanish funds to ten years has fallen for the first time below 5% from March of 2012. This is the most important thing more than the success of the auction although clear this a thing goes related with the other one, for Spain it is vital to even refinance its debt without reducing it in quantity with some you interest inferior to 3% alone this would justify the government's decision of not requesting an emergency rescue to the European Central Bank. 

It is certain that the Spanish profitability won't be in those levels, if the promise of the last July of the president of the BCE, Mario Draghi, of making "what is necessary" to save to the euro, not alone he stays, but rather it is secured by the facts and economic results of Spain and of the euro group, the figures of the Spanish economy speak by themselves. The production decreased 1,4% in 2012 and the European Commission calculates that the fact will be seemed in 2013. The unemployment already affects to the population's 26.6%; in the case of the youths, the fact overcomes 50% amply, these figures don't in fact help a lot to the described objective. 

Nevertheless, it is clear why the investors are returning. Spain has made important progresses when approaching its debt crisis: he has announced a reduction of their deficit in 2,5 percentage points of the GDP in 2012 and he waits a similar discount this year 2013, 60% of those adjustments has been gotten through cuttings of the expense and the suppression of 230.000 employments in the public sector, now lack to see if these more cuttings those taken place by the economy private non reduce more than that calculated the hopes of revenues that is to say to the arks of the public country property if the recession persists the figures they won't leave.  

On the other hand, the Government's labor reformations, next to the high unemployment index to 26.6%, they have contributed to break the bond between wages and inflation, and the wages stay invariable from the second trimester of 2012. That has allowed Spain to recover 80% of competitiveness with regard to the euro zone and it has contributed to an increment of the exports on one hand but also to a cost of the unemployment that overcame the 50,000 million Eurus a year. 

Also, the battered labor market and of the fall of the consumption the bank system is being object of a recapitalization and a restructuring that although it seems enormous, I believe that it was short and he will think about a new reconversion in 2014 when it is seen that the rescued banks don't leave its crash situation in the shade. The number of entities has fallen from 50 to 12, the branches have decreased in 14% and the employees, in 13% and there will be more important cuttings of the expense but with everything and with that the base problem won't be resolved Which it is this since problem that the GDP of Spain doesn't tolerate so many banks and so big, I have told it alone many times there is a country in europa that has 4 systemic banks Spain and the worst thing is that one of them Bankia is broken. 

As a result of the first floor Spanish GDP, the main weakness of the Spanish banks is the strong dependence of the bank system in the financing of the BCE that could take to the banks to hurry it’s you give leverage, restricting the credit to the companies of the country. With what another time would be making rotate the roulette of the des capitalization of the company’s reduction of insoles you close etc. nevertheless, the Spanish banks have recovered the access to the debt markets but this alone it will be sustained if Spain stops its recession. 

But with everything and the hardness of our hill of particular January the biggest risks are not right now in the internal economy, but in the rest of the euro zone. The errors that France, Italy or Cyprus and the true reality of Greece and Portugal make, they could give to the fret with the efforts of Spain, to the power to be elements that destabilize the markets of the euro and of course the international ones. This is in some brushstrokes the hill of January of Spain and it will last him 12 months.