Does
the recovery of the Eurozone weaken? It is certain that the index made up of
agents of purchases of the Eurozone fell in September at 53,6, as he explained
yesterday the company responsible for its summary, Markit. The figure contrasts
with August 54,3 and the published early reading of 53,9 September 23. As much
the industrial sector as the services showed slope signs. Some economists
consider these data a deception, and the investors remain in alert in front of
the smallest sign that the problems that suffer the emergent markets are
reaching to the developed markets.
But
the level of the index has as minimum the same importance that its address. The
compound index continues very above the mark of 50 that separates the expansion
of the contraction, and it overcomes the stocking from 1998. The stocking for
the third trimester is located in 53,9, on-line with the second trimester.
Spain
also offers an example of this phenomenon. The PMI of the Spanish services
suffered a strong fall in September, registering its worse reading of 2015. But
in 55,1, the level a solid growth, and Markit still points out it communicated
an increase of the new orders, an accumulation of late orders, a growth of the
employment and an improvement of the managerial feeling.
The
global politics’ uncertainty can be affecting to the perceptions that are head
of the data. The orientation on the future allowed the investors to look beyond
the ascents and monthly slopes in the data. Now that the Federal Reservation of
USA, shows a bigger "dependence of the data", it doesn't surprise
that the economists and the investors can think in the same way. But the
investors should not be allowed to influence in excess for the panorama of the
economy that they paint the isolated data.
The
same thing happens in the Eurozone, alone that in the opposed address; the
smallest sign of weakness is classified as and evidence that the European
Central Bank should relax even more its politics. Nevertheless, the investors
have to think carefully on what they could afford new interventions. Every time
seems more evident than the quantitative expansion (QE) it can prevent worse
economic problems, but he doesn't give place to spectacular recoveries, in our
case there is not even visible recovery.
The Eurozone,
is a fact, it seems to resist the increase of the global uncertainty worse. The
first Greek minister, Alexis Tsipras, made on Monday a firm call to a debt
relief when its Government presented an austere budget for 2016 that he
attaches strictly to the goals of the new international rescue in a new
cooperation spirit with European creditors and the IMF. The budget, presented
by Tsipras during its speech before the Parliament on its program of
Government, estimates that the economy will continue in recession next year,
contracting 1,3 percent after a fall of 2,3 percent this year, before returning
to the path of growth in 2017.
This
is to my way of seeing very alarming Greece it accumulates debt after debt and
deficit after deficit and neither the own Greek economy neither the European
economy can take out to the country of the recession rather the opposite, this
is not at all logical somebody has to direct the operations and I fear myself
that it cannot be neither Greek politicians neither economists of the troika
because he gives me the sensation that confused by the problem they don't come
any combined solution with what the problem of Greece and the UE will be above
the table of negotiations in Brussels in 2018 if it is that some and others
arrive to those dates.
Tsipras
who’s left Government was reelected September 20 after giving goes behind and
to agree a rescue of up to 86.000 million Eurus in exchange for expense
cuttings, increase of taxes and economic reformations under strict external
supervision, he said to the legislators that it will negotiate with stability
for a relief of the debt. The budget contained measures of austerity for 6.400
million Eurus this year and the next one, of which 4.340 million will be in
2016 these figures they are very beautiful but if they look at the GDP of
Greece and the interests of its debt are impossible to sustain.
Likewise
the UE has questioned the budgets presented by Spain to few days that they take
place general elections and it can happen that the budgets not presented alone
they are incredible but rather it cannot correct them the current government
that has presented them this is in my opinion a jeer to the democracy of the UE
and the global economy it cannot be for very friends that are the minister of
finances of Spain with the economic analysts of the UE that these last ones
tolerate an aberration like it is to carry out some budgets purely electoral
and that like it was of hoping once to analyze them they see that they are
impossible and the things stay this way, completely in the air, it is a jeer to
the society so much European as Spanish because we are playing with impossible,
Greece on one hand and Spain for another
The
minister of Finances of the area euro agreed to discuss a limited restructuring
of the debt, but you don't remove, if Greece concludes with success a first
revision of the new rescue program for year ends, what means to approve
momentous reformations of taxes, pensions and public administration is playing
the mouse and the cat the European minister of finances they know positively
that Greece won't be able to clip more, but they prefer to listen what Tsipras
said that the Government will approve all the laws required to achieve a
successful revision and to open the door for the debt renegotiation that was
key for the economic recovery.
So to
begin 2016 we will already have two problems like we fix the same Grecian
problems another time and that make and with the one who the reconstruction of
the Spanish budget this time already without electoral promises the economy of
the good European Union is not governed this way neither that of the UE neither
that of any family company or institution is a shame that I come denouncing
every time we cannot continue with the European Union understands it once and
for all it is necessary to finish with this or this finished with all us.
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