martes, 6 de octubre de 2015

WE CONTINUE WITHOUT KNOWING TO WHERE WE GO WE WON'T ARRIVE THIS WAY NEVER


Does the recovery of the Eurozone weaken? It is certain that the index made up of agents of purchases of the Eurozone fell in September at 53,6, as he explained yesterday the company responsible for its summary, Markit. The figure contrasts with August 54,3 and the published early reading of 53,9 September 23. As much the industrial sector as the services showed slope signs. Some economists consider these data a deception, and the investors remain in alert in front of the smallest sign that the problems that suffer the emergent markets are reaching to the developed markets. 

But the level of the index has as minimum the same importance that its address. The compound index continues very above the mark of 50 that separates the expansion of the contraction, and it overcomes the stocking from 1998. The stocking for the third trimester is located in 53,9, on-line with the second trimester. 

Spain also offers an example of this phenomenon. The PMI of the Spanish services suffered a strong fall in September, registering its worse reading of 2015. But in 55,1, the level a solid growth, and Markit still points out it communicated an increase of the new orders, an accumulation of late orders, a growth of the employment and an improvement of the managerial feeling. 

The global politics’ uncertainty can be affecting to the perceptions that are head of the data. The orientation on the future allowed the investors to look beyond the ascents and monthly slopes in the data. Now that the Federal Reservation of USA, shows a bigger "dependence of the data", it doesn't surprise that the economists and the investors can think in the same way. But the investors should not be allowed to influence in excess for the panorama of the economy that they paint the isolated data. 

The same thing happens in the Eurozone, alone that in the opposed address; the smallest sign of weakness is classified as and evidence that the European Central Bank should relax even more its politics. Nevertheless, the investors have to think carefully on what they could afford new interventions. Every time seems more evident than the quantitative expansion (QE) it can prevent worse economic problems, but he doesn't give place to spectacular recoveries, in our case there is not even visible recovery. 

The Eurozone, is a fact, it seems to resist the increase of the global uncertainty worse. The first Greek minister, Alexis Tsipras, made on Monday a firm call to a debt relief when its Government presented an austere budget for 2016 that he attaches strictly to the goals of the new international rescue in a new cooperation spirit with European creditors and the IMF. The budget, presented by Tsipras during its speech before the Parliament on its program of Government, estimates that the economy will continue in recession next year, contracting 1,3 percent after a fall of 2,3 percent this year, before returning to the path of growth in 2017. 

This is to my way of seeing very alarming Greece it accumulates debt after debt and deficit after deficit and neither the own Greek economy neither the European economy can take out to the country of the recession rather the opposite, this is not at all logical somebody has to direct the operations and I fear myself that it cannot be neither Greek politicians neither economists of the troika because he gives me the sensation that confused by the problem they don't come any combined solution with what the problem of Greece and the UE will be above the table of negotiations in Brussels in 2018 if it is that some and others arrive to those dates. 

Tsipras who’s left Government was reelected September 20 after giving goes behind and to agree a rescue of up to 86.000 million Eurus in exchange for expense cuttings, increase of taxes and economic reformations under strict external supervision, he said to the legislators that it will negotiate with stability for a relief of the debt. The budget contained measures of austerity for 6.400 million Eurus this year and the next one, of which 4.340 million will be in 2016 these figures they are very beautiful but if they look at the GDP of Greece and the interests of its debt are impossible to sustain. 

Likewise the UE has questioned the budgets presented by Spain to few days that they take place general elections and it can happen that the budgets not presented alone they are incredible but rather it cannot correct them the current government that has presented them this is in my opinion a jeer to the democracy of the UE and the global economy it cannot be for very friends that are the minister of finances of Spain with the economic analysts of the UE that these last ones tolerate an aberration like it is to carry out some budgets purely electoral and that like it was of hoping once to analyze them they see that they are impossible and the things stay this way, completely in the air, it is a jeer to the society so much European as Spanish because we are playing with impossible, Greece on one hand and Spain for another  

The minister of Finances of the area euro agreed to discuss a limited restructuring of the debt, but you don't remove, if Greece concludes with success a first revision of the new rescue program for year ends, what means to approve momentous reformations of taxes, pensions and public administration is playing the mouse and the cat the European minister of finances they know positively that Greece won't be able to clip more, but they prefer to listen what Tsipras said that the Government will approve all the laws required to achieve a successful revision and to open the door for the debt renegotiation that was key for the economic recovery.  

So to begin 2016 we will already have two problems like we fix the same Grecian problems another time and that make and with the one who the reconstruction of the Spanish budget this time already without electoral promises the economy of the good European Union is not governed this way neither that of the UE neither that of any family company or institution is a shame that I come denouncing every time we cannot continue with the European Union understands it once and for all it is necessary to finish with this or this finished with all us. 

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