I have not been happened
another title for this tomorrow's article I possibly regret it more than you,
but there is not another solution that to continue writing on the same problem
until some day he ends, I don't wait (you will understand) that my comments
serve so that somebody takes them as solution to the problem but I guarantee
them that when this I come out to the light he opens it written I no longer
have the smallest doubt.
Yesterday he wrote on what should
make the Greek economy to leave urgently the more ones the total stagnation to me
to understand and in my opinion it proposed the setting in march of the drachma
to put it in circulation with the purpose of being able to supply to the banks
and these to the daily economy of civic trade and companies of the country he
said that this drachma should be supported by the Euro and with a value of
alone indexed change to the European foreign currency. This would solve the
lack of effective in the Greek economy and it would save the face to the
European partners and of the euro group when not having to already supply from
so many Eurus to those indebted Greek economic structures.
Because we all speak of the
Greek economy but we don't speak in detail and there is one that is fundamental
to solve the operative one and viability of the Greek banks. The answer to the
problems of the Greek banks is simple: A stable Government, a believable
economic plan and the perspective of an economic recovery. The firm one
"not" in the Greek referendum he can that he has given them the first
one, but the other ones two they are more far that never.
The markets reflected the
result this Monday; at the last moment of the morning the Stoxx Europe 600 fell
less than 1%, with damage for the Italian and Portuguese banks, and the yield
of the public funds of the south of Europe had ascended modestly. Nevertheless,
the voting increases the possibilities of an exit of Greece: the freezing of
the bank system of the country runs the risk of sinking the Greek economy. The
Greek banks are staying without effective. They arrived finally of week they
are single 1.000 million available Eurus for the depositors, according to the
national bank association. Depending on the rhythm of the retreats of money,
they have one day or two as a lot.
It is probable that the
European Central Bank grants more emergency funds now that the financial rescue
of Greece has concluded. But this will make it with great caution and without
many boasts of generosity. This left to the banks in a critical situation and
while their liquidity is frozen, the engagements of the economy screech and the
economic activity doesn't work and it also avoids insofar as possible to the
banks. A useless system of payments could take to the tourists to cancel its
vacations, cutting the main source of revenues of Greece.
Before the referendum, there
were rumors that you could appeal to a part of the remaining deposits to help
to recapitalize the banking. He can that some of these rumors were spread with
the purpose of scaring the voters. Nevertheless, the certain thing is that the
more this economic, more probable limbo lasts it is that the banks will have to
be rescued, partly with the funds of the depositors like it happened in Cyprus.
So they won't become new deposits and the debts will be pending.
This means that the high
volume of irretrievable loans, equivalent to between 32% and 39% of the
internal debt of the four main banks at the end of the first trimester, it will
only increase. The same as the economic crisis that has arisen since the
referendum was announced it means that Greece needs an even bigger rescue, it
is also probable that the capital necessities increase. Citigroup estimates
that the four banks could require 10.000 million Eurus of new capital easily if
this situation continues maybe much more here it is where the new Drachma would
enter this liquidity perfectly it could be made with own money without having
to increase the consumption of Eurus because they remember that then these
Eurus are to pay them and as always I say it is euro according to for who is
very expensive.
The true question for the BCE
is in what moment he/she can stop to judge that the Greek banks are solvent.
Then he would have to cut the financing. The most probable thing is that this
happens as very late July 20, when the term of Greece finishes to pay the
public debt in the balance of the own BCE: the unpaid one would mine the collateral
one that the banks have promised to obtain the financing and it would imply
losses on the assets of the banks. But it is that without a true progress
toward a new agreement with Greece in next days, the implications of the
solvency of the banks could leave the BCE without another option more than to
cut the line much before.
That practically would mean a
total nationalization of the banks like part of the exit of Greece of the euro
zona. The shareholders will disappear, there will be losses for the bondholders
and the remaining depositors won't leave better stopped.
The banks need the Government
to agree a new rescue soon. Nevertheless, Greece is caught in its own vicious
circle: without a bank system that works, any agreement rises in price every
day that is prolonged this situation, stiller moving away it. I insist all this
it is very well but it requires time and a lot of work and while what one
cannot make is that Greece doesn't work in the most basic thing, the internal
economy, this you can solve I insist with the Drachma
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