lunes, 11 de julio de 2011

IT IS UNQUESTIONABLE THE POLITICS KILLS TO THE ECONOMY

Which will the next record of the European domino be in falling for the crisis? In the last two years, the widespread opinion has been that Spain is the most vulnerable nation after Greece, Ireland and Portugal, but the attention of the investors is centered more and more in Italy. And one wonders this they have discovered it today the markets financial noon today what they have discovered the markets it is that the uncertainty of the government of Berlusconi is about to jump in pieces and this situation is the one that crumbles the whole screen of economic stability that Italy in front of Spain. 

Spain today he has also received blows to skillful and sinister this already months ago happens and it goes by the same reason Zapatero government it is destroyed and the president doesn't want to admit it so an and another time the markets they give him the back because simply they don't trust. So the parallelism of the two situations is very clear they are the politicians those that sink the economies of its bought not countries them these alone one with its inefficacy they are afraid to that its money gets lost and they attack with the weapons that have the bad reputation and the retreat of money of the banks and markets of the country that it is not known how to govern.    

The breach among the profitability of the Spanish and Italian funds has decreased in half this year in the face of the fear to that the problems of Rome could be more difficult of approaching that those of Madrid. The two countries confront difficult challenges. Spain registered a high deficit in 2010, of 9, 2% of the GDP, and it should restructure its boxes of savings. But their ratio debt /PIB is below the stocking of the euro zone. Italy, on the other hand, has a low budgetary deficit of 4, 6% and he has not needed to bolster to its banks. But you grieve it has grown in one decade, and their ratio debt/PIB in 2010, of 119%, it was only overcome by that of Greece. For the time being, the markets are more concerned for Spain, given the uncertainty on their deficit and their bank system.    

Among so much the Greek situation is another example of the so much political inefficacy that of the country like that of Europe, how many times I have made mention that the unavoidable thing is unavoidable the numbers don't deceive never that it is what they have two they are always four and put on like the gentlemen presidents from France of the BCE and the president from Germany put on a country in unemployment with a GDP of 230.000 million Eurus he will never be able to pay 360,000 million debt Eurus that every day increases because they have interests of the order of 8/9% that is to say daily 90 million Eurus they are added.   

But what it passes with the politicians it is that they are silly or that, I have also repeated it several times, I am not profession economist, what I see, the advisers of the Presidents of the governments, the minister of economy, the directors of the central banks, the director of the BCE where they look, and if they look that they come, the fear to the hole, to the ridicule, to the most palpable demonstration in their inefficacy, the fear to lose their status. Before in the XIV and XV centuries a situation seemed in a Kingdom of England or Spain, the king would already have made them cut the head, maybe this it is the difference that would fix the things once and for all.   

They are not necessary more meetings of minister of finances in Brussels the problems are the same ones and the solutions there also is not other, they can paint them to the I surge or in watercolor but they won't leave the black and red color, color classic of the disaster and of the negative numbers, and put on like put on they won't vary the things. This is putting on approval the patience of the investors, because they come that there is not political decision that they don't know what to make or that they don't dare with that which still alarms more, in a moment in the one that Italy still has to collect around half of its total requirements of financing that ascend to 222.000 million Eurus this year; Spain only has to obtain other 40.000 million Eurus. But it is that Greece no matter how much they say it continues having the same debt because what has paid alone they are interests. 

It is curious in front of the numbers, it is Spain the best prepared to leave their crisis, however it is the one that you/they attack but, because very simple, to Greece they already give it for lost and they don't wait surprises they already know what there is, but Spain is all an incognito one neither the own Spain knows what has under the carpet, after 16 years of real estate madness and of hit culture, if I say 16 knowingly years, it is not an error this began with the time of Aznar. 

  Think of the following examples, like it can be that Spain has two of the biggest banks in Europe, it won't be for the GDP of the country, because it is the forth of Europe, and it is curious the alone countries pointers have one of important and from behind of the Santander all, even the Deutsche Bank. The company more important telecommunications of the continent. The biggest construction companies in Europe. It is the number two in tourism. It is the one that has higher speed of Europe. One that has more airports, without flights of Europe. One of the best oil companies in the world. Four factories of automobiles (that if all strange ones) but we don't have Euros.    

Because this is this way, because because everything this doesn't produce material wealth, what calls you added value, Banks cannot be sold, the telephones that are sold are of it was, here alone the line, the high speed is given it is demonstrated that it is a ruin except in a single line, the companies manufacturers have been had to go of the country because they were so big that they could no longer continue building but you work for that if in Spain, the airports more hits and lost, the oil company has their business it was here there is not petroleum, and you manufacture them of automobiles all they export it because here doesn't buy a car neither. So here in Spain like alone own product we manufacture: consumption, costs and unemployed, and anything of this is exportable. 

Clear truth is, because this it is the problem, political and but political that neither here neither in Europe they know what it is necessary to make who has the blame, because not you maybe will have to be sincere and to say that maybe us the own society that we raise them that we request them the sky and this is very expensive, and they that are very well there up deceive us and they give it to us, until the moment arrives of paying and then everything is to squeak of teeth. 

Because have already warned before. Europe is dead you don't become more nervous the markets will lose it everything, and us also, there is no longer behind turn Europe he determines to make traps an and another time and it no longer strains, they must let that Greece breaks and make a plan of long term, it will be necessary to restructure the Spanish debt, because he won't be able to pay it the year 2012, and it is necessary to make a drastic decision, once and for all, or we devaluate the euro a minimum of 30% and we become poorer , but more competitive or we disassemble the European union, and each one that negotiates like he can with the markets 

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