London (Europe Press). - The possibility that Greece abandons the euro zone
he has stopped to be a taboo question in the speech of the European Central
Bank (BCE), such and like they reflect the declarations of the governor of the
Bank of Belgium, Luc Coene who, in spite of being shown contrary to this
hypothesis, it assumes that if it was necessary it would be possible to carry
out a friendly divorce.
It is evident that the reality forces more than the good or bad intentions
and at the end it is imposed, Greece, Portugal, and now unfortunately Spain,
they cannot sustain with its economy a currency that is very above its
possibilities, we are trying to live an idyll among a princess (the Euro) and
some beggars.
A coexistence between two realities so clearly different are not able to
for logic more than to end in a divorce, this is never something good, you can
make the things in a kind way, but they can end up becoming ugly and difficult.
I suppose that a friendly divorce, would be possible, but we would regret even
this way it, the thing this in the uncertainty of to assure who would suffer
more in the liberation process after the supposition divorce, if the poor
person or the princess.
In this sense, it is necessary to admit that the hypothetical exit of
Greece of the euro implies the even bigger risk that this it was view like a
precedent and you shoot the speculations regarding new countries that could
leave the euro zone, increasing the financial tensions. This is the main risk,
the rest can be negotiated. Once you have created a precedent, then people
undoubtedly think that, good, if a country has come out, then they could leave
more", this it is the reality that scares to Germany and its
satellites.
Be as was, the question is that it already urges a solution or other,
because that that yes it seems unavoidable it is that Greece should abandon the
euro, because it is already contaminating the whole area euro, the stupid
European posture commanded by the diabolical axis of the Merkozy, it has been
clear that has been an I authenticate failure for the economic stability of the
euro area, the clearest examples in Spain and Italy they are an irrefutable
evidence, but it is that we have not still heard say anything to France that is
absolutely quiet in these moments I suppose that planning as leaving the tangle
in that it is put.
The silence of Hollande and of Sarkozy it is significant that France to me
to understand, it was pushed by Germany to play a departure that neither can
maintain, the problem is in that France cannot recognize that it cannot
maintain the on stake for Germany in the game table, it is played in the
departure anything less than its triple AAA, but I have very undoubtedly Fransua
Hollande he knows about leftovers that it cannot continue playing the same game
that Germany.
I don't discard at all that the BCE has not still reached the limits of its
performance capacity, not only as for slopes of types of interest, but mainly
in what refers had not measured conventional, where potential exists for new
steps, and I don't doubt to admit that that made up to now by the BCE, is not
to the height of the quantitative relief of the Federal Reservation (Fed) it
exercised and it exercises in the USA.
In my opinion we have not reached the limit for below (regarding the types
of interest), but from the side of the non conventional measures, it exists
clearly potential to take more steps if it was necessary, you that follow me
the they have already read many times in my blogs, I am not so much in the line
of the slope of the interest of the money, but in the drastic devaluation of
the euro, the euro at the current level even after the slopes of these last
days it is very above the economic reality of the euro area, the half value of
the 1,3 dollar/euro, is untenable for many European economies and he forces
them to really be depreciated in its internal economy, but it doesn't serve so
that this you reactivation but just the opposite.
It is a known true that alone there are two solutions: or we equal the
economies of Europe area putting them all at the level of the highest, or to
the opposite, we equal them to the lowest, in this process it is necessary to
keep in variable several mind, a the most dangerous, for the Germany that has
prefixed their power above the other ones, is that the differences now are
almost impossible of balancing, for it the condition of equaling to the Greek
economy is completely impossible, neither we can go up it to the European half
height, and we cannot go down this to the moat of the Greek.
For this reason the solution is in that Europe fixes to what level he wants
to maintain in the economy of the Euro, the first phase would be in locating it
between a 15 or 20 % lower, devaluating the euro suddenly, little by little I
don't eat up to now, because this absorbs it the dynamics of the daily market
and they don't appreciate it the poorest economies, I calculate that this new
appraisement of the euro, would give space to all the current economies, except
the Greek that would continue him being impossible to stay and to be sustained
since in Eurus I believe that it should be devaluated more, and this won't be
able to him to make if he stays in the euro Greece and the rest of the euro
area they have to understand it once and for all.
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