The turn to the markets of funds of Greece after four years has not
convinced the economists that it can avoid a third rescue, Greece it is not
able to escape from its debts and deficit and the markets believe that he won't
be able to for this means to be financed enough to cover the necessities of
financing of next year.
It shows this way it a survey of Bloomberg News, since 6 of each 10
consulted experts hope the country needs more money apart from the 240.000
received millions of its European partners and the IMF from 2010. The
institution directed by Christine Lagarde calculates that Greece will have a
deficit of financing of 12.600 million for next year.
It is evident that Greece cannot generate more GDP, its ruin it is total,
all that the rescues have facilitated him has not been good for nothing else
that to pay interests of its debt, but like it happens more or less in all the
countries and economies rescued, they are not good to reactivate them, simply
so that the debtors or moneylenders charge their interests. But it is that
also, this reality is a spoilt deceit to themselves, because if you tell me
that the Greek debt has decreased, there would be an exit possibility but it is
that he doesn't go this way, that is to say Greece pays more interests and it
doesn't reduce debt but it increases it, in short the same as Italy happens to
Spain and already France.
"The capacity of Greece to
generate enough funds to cover that hole is not enough", Gianluca
explained to Ziglio, of Sunrise Brokers. "At the end, the European
partners will have to make something to cover the financial necessities that
Greece has until it can consent to the markets in a regular and
considerable" way, so that I fear myself it will never happen. The Greek
funds have ascended of price (and lowered their profitability) since the
country carried out the biggest restructuring in sovereign debt of the history.
It has allowed it to the Hellenic government to go to the markets twice this
year, obtaining 4.500 million Eurus emitting funds to 3 and 5 years.
The yield of the voucher to 10 years fell until a minimum of 5,59% last
month, compared with its historical maximum of 44,21% of fair March of 2012,
before the restructuring. However, the problems of Portugal and “Espirito Santo
bank” have made that the interests overcame today 6,2%. The first minister,
Antonis Samaras, he has repeated in numerous occasions that Greece won't need
another rescue. But many economists don't believe him.
Greece will need at least other two years before it can recover the
budgetary" "sovereignty, since the IMF will continue giving funds
under the program and that any relief of the debt will probably be conditioned,
Greece will have to pass quarterly tests. This financing deficit is one of the
things that will be analyzed when the troika (BCE, IMF and European Commission)
they return to Athens in September. A possible solution would be to use the
11.500 millions of the funds of the rescue that were dedicated to recapitalized
the banking and they have not been used.
However, the troika has rejected all the Greek proposals of using that
bottom for any other destination that was not the banking, the economists they
hope Greece leaves the recession this year, expanding 0,2%, however, with a
lingering deflationary situation (16 serial months of fall of prices), the
possibility to return the debt in real terms gets complicated, and the analysts
don't hope the prices ascend until for the less ones 2015.
As they come the horse of Troya it is bolting again, and I fear myself that
this pure blood will attract to the flock one after other, this road will
follow it Portugal, Spain, Italy and possibly France because there is no way
that the specialists understand it, or because they don't come it, or because
it doesn't interest them because they go this way charging interests and at the
moment they have fences to the horses, but this won't be able to stay a lot
but.
The economy of the UE today it doesn't work as the communicating glasses,
it is certain that if you put water in one, it is with the help of taking out
it of other, but the level of both is not balanced like it happens in the
system of communicating glasses, the total volume of water of all the glasses
of the UE is also the same one, and the BCE the IMF or who is, the only thing
that makes is to move the water of one to other, the thing works this way,
today we speak of the Greek glass because well at the end the BCE (Germany)
when he sees that it cannot hold back more, it took out water of its funds and
it filled the empty glass, so the BCE emptied a little bit and Greece will
survive, but I eat at the same time he will go returning this water, to the big
glass, you began to empty again while the big one is filled with the same water
again that before transverse, and this way an and another time.
And this operation is the same
formula that is applied in Spain, Portugal, and Italy the problem working it is
this way irresoluble, because in the bottom the total volume of water of the UE
is always the same one, he simply moves of one to other always going by the big
glass, and here it is the error the economy of the UE, you cannot continue
acting this way, the economy euro should become some communicating glasses once
and for all really, that is to say it is necessary to fill them at the same
time all at the level that decides and to get that he stays thanks to the
pressure that the big and central glass (the BCE) it can maintain to all the
other ones even and even 
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