THERE IS NOT EXIT THEY SELL US WHITE LIES

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) it has published their umpteenth conclusions about the economy of Spain and although it estimates that our country is making the duties well, it shows that "the winds in against" they will impede such a strong recovery as the registered ones in the past. To eyes of the institution, to half term, the growth will stay around the 1,5 or 2% and the unemployment will diminish significantly but he will stay above 18% for the year 2019.  

This fact is very serious, if you don't have today work, he should worry and a lot because there are two very dangerous factors in these calculations made by the IMF, they will see because, if you are not lucky and he doesn't obtain a work soon, the most probable thing is that to the rhythm that he waits or it calculates the IMF, it will no longer get never it more, because if today with an unemployment of 25% we will reduce so single 7% in 5 years, and whenever the growth of the GDP is of 2 annual%, he means that we will eliminate unemployment or we will create alone employment for 1.600,000 people. The problem is that the other ones 4.400,000 will be 5 years old more, this naturally will exclude definitively many of the labor market, people that will have spent from the 45 to the 50 years age if these in unemployment nobody no longer hires you.  

This way, the biggest growth in the economy will allow, according to the IMF a bigger rhythm of reduction of the unemployment that will conclude 2014 in 24,9%, in front of 25,5% foreseen in April, and in 23,8% in 2015, when three months ago 24,9% was expected. nevertheless, in spite of this improvement, it is not expected that it is possible to reduce the unemployment at least below the threshold of 20% up to 2019, for when it calculates that the unemployment affects to 18,7%. Today I don't foresee this plan so improved as he/she wants to sell the IMF, because maybe yes that the rhythm of unemployment creation stops at the end of this 2014, but I am not sure of the growths of net employment next years, because the Spanish industry is not under conditions of creating so many work positions. 

I have already commented it several times, a thing is to increase the GDP with the help of a competitiveness based on the creation of new companies and for logic of employments, and other the creation of a bigger competitiveness of the current companies with the help of creating a competitiveness based on the discount of salaries, cuttings of insoles, for benefits generated outside of our frontiers and for the production of products with very high added value and low manpower use that it is in these moments the only future in that it supports the Spanish economy   

This will be this way because the credo will continue without appearing because the Spanish debt will continue growing, and this factor will impede it. When having more debt there will be more deficit since the debt of the state, the same as today, he goes dedicated to complete the bolted deficit that the production lack and competitiveness is produced because our scale of payments doesn't increase. The IMF predicts this way that the Spanish budgetary deficit will decrease in a gradual way, although to an insufficient rhythm to fulfill the foreseen goals. This way, the institution omens that the negative imbalance of the Spanish bills for 2014 will be of 5,7% of the GDP and of 4,7% in 2015, while it stops 2016 it will be of 3,8%. 

As he told them this took to an increment of the public debt, the presage of the IMF contemplate a growth sustained until reaching 99% of the GDP this year (we have already overcome it) and 101% in 2015 that will take to a roof of 102% later one year, starting from the when the ratio of indebtedness will pass to be stabilized and to begin a minimum descent that will maintain the debt in 100% of the GDP for 2019. 

This growth so modest if we compare it to previous recoveries (with a growth around the 3 or 4%) reflective that the depth of the financial crisis and of credit that impedes, a stronger growth, in the Spanish case, to achieve an economic rebound is still more difficult due to the difficulties to carry out a bigger internal devaluation, in an environment of rigidities of prices and wages and the drop inflation since stays the almost null increase consumption interior, it is easier than we leave toward a slight deflation that not to a reactivation. 

The high corporate debt and of the financing conditions they limit to the companies (especially the pymes) their capacity to request borrowed and to enlarge their operations is today in nonexistent day and of all it is known that the productivity of Spain is in 80% in the companies denominated pymes, (small companies) also, the wallets of the homes continue feeling the effect of the crisis, with a high level of indebtedness and a saving rate lowers in a context of a high unemployment and a modest increment of the wages. 

This is what our government seeks to sell us as that we are leaving the crisis, it is the height, it is such a false lie, as certain it is his inefficacy and his lack of objectives, Spain it cannot continue with the figures of deficits debt and of current unemployment, under the European conditions the same as Greece Portugal Italy and France this is this way or one is carried out it removes of European debt of the order of 40% as minimum, or these numbers are the bills of the total failure of the economy of the south of the europa of the euro.