BUCKLE UP THE BELTS BECAUSE THE EUROPEAN ECONOMY CAN FALL OF BLOW

Between 2009 and 2012, the euro area and the euro they were on the edge of the collapse. The problem uncovers it the real situation of the Greek economy, but in fact the collapse danger was not only for Greece. There were moments in those that the debts of countries like Spain or Italy didn't appear in the screens of the operators because it had not bought for them. We were in crash technique. In those years, with the cousin of risk above the 600 points, all the looks were centered in the sovereign funds and in how the debt markets could put an end to the experiment of the unique currency. 

Today, the Spanish voucher to ten years is in 2,1%, with a differential of 127 basic points regarding German. All those dangers seem very distant. But the truth is that it is not this way, the correspondent of the Financial Times for European matters, warned in a published article last Sunday; "The euro is in a more dangerous situation that in the moment summit of the crisis". And it is not the only one, The Wall Street Journal and The Economist; they have published similar reports in the last weeks. 

Of course that in the European chancelleries this is a conclusion that is not accepted. You have left the debt crisis and point. There are not uncertainties about the future of the unique currency. But the risks for the euro have not only evaporated, according to from what angle we look, we could suit in that are even bigger. The question is if this time, like the European politicians will have been able to avoid them for two years. The key of this new analysis is no longer in the public debt, but in the recession and in its effects, about the economy and also on the European economic and social politics. 

It is evident that no national politician accepts before the society that the reality economic European is about to fall, because this is as much as saying that the politicians are following some erroneous solutions and that they don't take anywhere to the national economies, with what the society would not accept to continue being sacrificed by it, but it is necessary to consider something evident: the euro is in danger among other things, because there is a series of European politicians with possibilities of to govern that assure that they will take out to its countries of the unique currency if they arrive to the power. 

That he means this, because simply that many politicians know that they could not govern with an economy based on a monster insatiable called EURO, a monster that is made pay to 1.25 dollars, that is to say that he forces to "pay more to be poorer" it has been already for months a reality that doesn't have justification some, my readers they are written it to me one and another time  

We can in Spain, Syriza in Greece, the National Front in France or the Movement Five Stars in Italy has many points in common. And maybe the most important is their bet to recover the monetary politics for their governments, with their corollary one logical: the exit of the euro and of the control of the BCE. Evidently if this arrives it is not alone the fall of the euro is the end of the European Union it sews that I am also repeating one and another time. 

I don't know how to define if it is problem it is that the euro has sunk the economies of more than half europa, or it is that the economies of the European Union cannot sustain the euro due to their real inequalities, the question is that it is like be, the order of the causes, the result is the same one, it cannot stay neither the EURO neither the EUROPEAN UNION under the current political conditions. 

One can think that maybe none of the political parties before mentioned they arrived to the power, but it is necessary to consider that some have possibilities for example, PODEMOS that in Spain it continues being the third force for the CIS, but this survey is very deformed, because we all know how the official agencies work, always to the service of the ruling party, the reality is that if today one makes elections in Spain I am for sure we CAN it would govern because the society this that he is not able to more.  

Pen marinate Him he would have few options in France, I don't see to this country cradle of the revolution voting for the right, in Italy the hosts of Beppe Grillo are not able to put seriousness in its political one and they are not reliable, only Syriza and Alexis Tsipras, in Greece, seems to have real options of arriving to the Government. But care, we speak of four countries and four different situations. Only with which one of them wins, the earthquake would feel in the whole Euro zone and further on because he would also unite immediately the United Kingdom. 

And with this whole mess the ghost of the recession appears. Germany could add this same week (on Friday becomes official the data) its second trimester of fall of the GDP. The stagnation seems a reality in the whole Euro zone. And the problem is that it is not the same thing the recession in 2014 that in 2008, between other things because the public debt it has been shot in these years of crisis. Greece, Italy, Portugal, Ireland, Cyprus, Belgium, France and Spain will finish 2015 with a debt ratio on the superior GDP to 100%. 

The level scares for itself, but if we add him a null or negative growth, it can shoot the worst fears in the investors that were already believed forgotten. How they will finance these enormous red numbers these countries if they are not even able to grow, although it is a little. For the time being, the debt markets seem calm and the cousins of risk of the peripherals seem controlled more or less. But nobody knows if it cannot have a spark that begins the stampede.