miércoles, 26 de noviembre de 2014

THE UE SHOULD CHOOSE THIS WAY BETWEEN REACTIVATIÓN OR REVOLUTION IT'S CLEAR



They return to the present time with more and more force the sovereign debts, and it is an unavoidable fact because it is without a doubt some the base of a problem that seems irresoluble for the situation of the change of the world economy, fundamentally that of production versus to the financial and speculative economy. It is evident that the productive economy has moved basically to the countries of the Asian east and the United States, and that in europa or the UE, like want to denominate it, it has been alone the with an economy based on numbers but not in things. 

This causes that most of European states are in recession, if you want we can soften it and to denominate technical recession, but this is to conform to and to lengthen the end that won't be other that the restructuring of the debts or the restructuring of the productive economy that he allows to obtain real revenues to be able to pay all the debts, but this is a problem in the UE of difficult solution, because the UE in turn has monopolized its industrial and productive potential in a single country, Germany, with what we would be that if you  re equilibrate the industrialization of europa, the first one that will suffer a fall of its economy would be Germany.  

The Financial Times, defended this Monday the politicians of restructuring of the public and private debt that are promoted from the European periphery by the parties of the extreme left. That they are the only formations that at the moment are outlining this sensible and necessary it debates they are already radical options as we Can in Spain, Syriza in Greece or the Movement 5 Stars in Italy, but at least it celebrates that finally leaders with real options of reaching the power, claim the relentless renegotiation of the conditions of our debt. 

Immediately before this current the president of the Bundesbank, Jens left Weidmann to counteract this tendency, at the moment politics that is advancing for the periphery of the UE. According to German, the debt public Spaniard is perfectly redeemable and, in consequence, there is no reason some so that it is restructured in these moments. Possibly similar decision would expel us of the financial markets and he would force us to finance our budgetary imbalances to much higher types of interest that the current ones, for what the unpaid one should only be adopted as politics of last resource. 

Indeed, the Spanish public debt is already located around 100 percent, what goes complicating its refund increasingly. But the current levels are not irreversible for the high volume of passive that accumulates, what really meets us on the edge of the insolvency is the towering public deficit that we continue exhibiting and that nobody wants to clip. That is, the problem is not that we owe 100 percent of the GDP, but rather after applying what many describe as "unbearable and unbearable" cuttings, we still continue having one of the most swollen public deficits in the world. 

And this situation is certain because for three years the PP that governs in Spain, what is making is to get in debt to look of sustaining the deficit, that is to say it is changing name the same problem that is not another that Spain is without any productive fabric that allows him to obtain enough revenues, first to reduce the deficit and then to reduce the debt. The truth is that I don't understand how it is that in these moments the Spanish debt moves in the limits of cost of 2% and I don't understand it because although the Spanish government assures that he wants to pay the whole debt, the markets should realize that it won't be they possible. 

And exactly this circumstance - that is that our problem is in the annual deficit and not in the debt stock - it is the same one that returns useless any politics of debt restructuring. Even when we played the biggest default in the humanity's history and we opted for the unpaid of 50% of the obligations of the State, the saving of interests would hardly ascend to 17.000 million Eurus: or what is the same thing, our public deficit post default would continue being of between 45.000 and 50.000 million Eurus. 

This maintains Spain in a situation of extreme insecurity, because if the debt is restructured, how to finance similar quantities exactly in the markets after making a default. It would not be possible I save to leonine interests on the part of some creditor that tried to take out party of our misfortune. That is exactly what happened to Greece after the restructuring of debt of 2012: only two years later, their public debt already overcomes the bench marks reached before the default again. 

I speak of Spain but I fear myself that this is of course common to Italy to Greece and the problem arrived soon in France, and this doesn't get ready if once and for all for all Germany doesn't give to the global solution, that is to say the individual debt of the countries of the UE should become the debt of the UE and it should be the whole UE the one that finances it meeting, for separate they don't doubt it, we will go falling in crash one after other all the countries of the euro group. 

And this connects with the proposal of the plan Juncker of mobilizing 300.000 million Eurus in investments directed to increase the industrialization of the euro area, because to unify the European debt and to continue without taking place more to sustain it would not serve as anything, their idea believes that it is very possible but I don't see at the moment as it will carry out it, because I don't know if there is a structure in the UE that can make this work, just as I see it he would have to have a commission that is devoted to pick up ideas of new products that come from the European private sector, as well as to study projects of novel character as much in technology as in services of diverse nature, and I eat Juncker it seeks to finance the beginning and to leave him to flow private capital that now this simply put in funds because he doesn't know what to make neither where to invest it. 

The idea is the only exit for the economy euro, don't doubt it, it is necessary to move europa like be or he will die alone, or what is worse at the end the European society gorged and it jumped against the inoperative and useless governments that have brought us until here, like he said before there are already clearly new political ideas that are having an acceptance in the society of the impoverished countries in the UE and east is the other road, or reactivation or revolution, gentlemen of the UE and of Germany you have the word. 

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