lunes, 6 de julio de 2015

ALONE GREECE SHOULD NEGOTIATE AS CONTINUING IN THE UE AND AS LEAVING THE EURO GROUP



It won't have left possible and this believes that the same Greeks have understood it, because we don't deceive ourselves they will be all the proud ones that they want, but they are not as silly as to be played the continuity of the helps of the troika, without having clear that is better to lose them in exchange for freedom of managing the national economy for them it is this like be, because Greece won't change its system of life of its society, first because he doesn't have another economic, neither industrial structure, neither of organization with which to change. Greece continued with its Greek system of life and it won't change, because if will make it has already made it, with the economic helps and control of the troika.  

Greece would owe reintroduce the drachma in an "immediate" way to restore the solvency of the State and the banks of the Hellenic country, facilitating the reactivation of its economy. All the contracts of the country, including those of debt with foreigners, they should be converted to drachmas. This would make solvents again to the Government and the Greek banks, to the power auto supplied of a foreign with the one that to give life to the country. And to leave the open door so that one day the country incorporates to the euro zona in the future again.  

The drachma would owe reintroduces in an immediate way basically as official currency of internal use, if one wants re ingresses later on to the Euro group, this says it because it would be much easier to obtain a valuation of the change among a drachma aided by the euro that not to let that the international market values it freely, but certainly always if the Greek government wants, if it not simply returns to the market of foreign currencies to the drachma and east already valued it and Greece will have its own currency to intervene in its interior and external economy. 

It is evident and a fact that the Greek Government is insolvent, what should take to the European Central Bank (BCE) to not continuing allowing the financing of the banks of the Hellenic country through the line of emergency liquidity (ELA). Because if he makes it can be outside of the executive legality and foundational, it is not in his operative one making operations in Eurus (that are the partners' of the euro group property) without an appropriate guarantee and today Greece is a doubtful, that clear and that strong client. 

This would take to a dead point to the Greek economy in absence of a new rescue plan, except for if he is solved the turn to the drachma, because to maintain new negotiations on a rescue would suppose such and like they are the things "a loss of time" without results, with the change of Eurus for the drachma the foregone depreciation of the drachma will allow a strong economic recovery in one or two years and it would break and then it would revert the flight of capitals. Because the possessors of big fortunes in the country should expatriate drachmas, that that besides the control of the bank of Greece, neither it would be a very tempting foreign currency for the market. 

This doesn't mean that Greece is in a political limbo this operation it can allow that Greece continues as member of the European Union, it is the case of Kingdom United for example, this would not leave Greece with problems of international alignment NATO, etc. and the UE could outline plans of help to this Greek transition by means of a generous financial attendance, in the mark of plans of humanitarian help for the poorest, etc. Also, Greece should have the possibility to return to the euro with posteriority. 

Regarding the euro area this solution would strengthen it because it is evident that a merely economic organization cannot give the same trust with 18 partners but that a partner is insolvent that with 17 all them solvents, the euro would be reinforced because he/she would already leave aside the too long chapter of the insecurity from a possible contamination to other countries of the Greek problem. And this Greece should understand it, the blame of what passes him belongs to its last governments and not of the UE, for very mistaken that the measures adopted to redo the Greek economy have been, it is of logic that a thing is not to guess right with the solution of the problem that to create the problem, I believe me. 

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