viernes, 3 de julio de 2015

THE IMF WON'T BE POLITICALLY CONVINCING, BUT ITS NUMBERS IF THEY SEEM HIM



It is very possible that the IMF is not any marvel in the treatment and in the forms of acting one realizes it with the repeated collisions that are given among the monetary organization and the different countries that collide with its theses or analysis it is also an organization that the other ones the world in general seems that they treat her a little as the dark room where they will stop political and characters that are usually rejections of other countries or entities. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Rodigo Rato, Christine Laggard. They are the last presidents or general directors that have mined with their loads of depth to the institution. 

But a thing is this place of important people's retirement that the respective politicians of their countries have not taken another form that to be taken out them of above and another very different one is the whole structure of technical economists that they are in her. In theory the alone IMF should be dedicated to the study and effects of the Macro - world Economy, and not to be devoted to the economy won't say micro but if of a nation, for example what has happened and it happened if it is not changed with the case of Greece the IMF it should already contemplate the effect of the sure unpaid Greek in the world economy and vice versa to study in that conditions the Greek economy to the world macroeconomics, and not to act directly in or with Greece but in this case with the BCE and the European Commission. 

If this has been made this way from the beginning today it would not be possibly Greece in the euro, and if he is, it would not be probably so indebted and unbalanced economically as he is. Because between the technicians of the BCE and those of the IMF maybe has understood each other much better than among presidents from Greece and presidents of the IMF, BCE, and UE, that it has more than enough they reign more the political strategy that the economic reality. 

The IMF defends, in a report public fact this Thursday that Greece needs a new European rescue of 36.000 million, even if the citizens of this country vote in favor of accepting the conditions proposed by the troika in the referendum foreseen for this Sunday. In short, it estimates that the country has some necessities of capital of 50.000 million, without having the pending money of the second rescue, of those that at least 36.000 (two thirds of the total) they would correspond the partners of the UE. 

To Spain it would correspond him to give about 4.590 millions, if the allotment of this new rescue one makes in the same way in that it was carried out in the second rescue. That is to say, based on the same proportion contributed in the creation of the European Central Bank: 12,75%. This new loan should have a term bigger than expiration and some interest lower than the current ones, according to that affirmed by the institution in a report with date of June 26. One day before the first Greek minister, Alexis Tsipras, summons the referendum. 

According to the institution, the monetary necessities of Greece have been increased by the "important produced political" changes. In January the coalition of radical left Syriza was able to arrive to the Government after winning the elections. To justify their statement, the Fund appeals to the revision that he has carried out of the rate of growth foreseen for the Hellenic country. This way in April this it was calculated in 2,5%. Now it is calculated in 0%. Also, the institution that Laggard directs believes that it would be necessary a restructuring of the Greek debt to make sustainable the economy of the Hellenic country. He has explained this way to it today the organism that intends to increase the expiration from the 20 year-old Hellenic debt to the 40. 

This is one of the Greek Government's central petitions, to which oppose you frontal the other two members of the troika, the BCE and the European Commission, but that the IMF yes it considers necessary. It is more, even with a restructuring of the debt, the debt ratio on the GDP would be of 140%. Now it touches 180%. The European partners face a net loss of more than 53.000 million Eurus in case Greece doesn't respect the budgetary objectives of the plan of the creditors, it points out the preliminary report on the Greek debt of the IMF. 

The Fund arrives to even to notice from its reticence’s to give more money to Athens if they don't take measures that guarantee the viability of the payment of the debt. The figures provided by the IMF could be even more alarming. The institution specifies that the recent events in Greece (he closes of the banks, capital controls, unpaid to the IMF) they are not included in the report. These would "have an important negative" impact, they add from the IMF. 

These numbers personally find me logical as it is natural I cannot confirm them million to million but they sound me logical that which takes me to say that to the Europeans in general doesn't interest us that Greece not already alone it doesn't continue in the euro but rather it doesn't continue in the UE under the current conditions. I don't want to pay more Eurus for any Greek government, because the reality tells me day by day that we need the Spaniards all the Eurus all those that we can obtain with our GDP and in no way we can pay those used to get in debt an and another time the Greeks or who are and I also understand that the same thing can and the French, German, Belgian, Italian, etc. should think with regard to Greece and to any country in the one that I have Spain. 

In Castilian a proverb that he says "The charity exists very expert begins with oneself" and this fears myself that is what one doesn't keep here in mind in the UE is possibly sought to think that "everybody is good" and this is not this way and if there are not an administration and an unique government the things they didn't straighten out the economy is very bad and leaves of the blame we have it all that we have believed that the UE was of all in some moment and it is not this way but the other way around that we all are or we should be of the UE, and this if has been made many imbalances and national waste has not been carried out. 

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