domingo, 13 de noviembre de 2011

GERMANY BETWEEN THE SPEEDS AND THE VOTES OF THE BCE, A MESS IS MADE




Not yet you has begun to negotiate the principle of the possible end of the political-economic disorder that these last months, and the Merkel is enslaving us she already wants tie it again, and the worst thing of everything is that she takes two very dangerous roads that can take to the I discourage and to the definitive abandonment of the Union, on the part of the countries that at the moment they form it and they are fighting to stay and to maintain it united. Merkel on behalf of Germany looks for the division of the community Europe again, he speaks in the two speeds like way, but in fact what Merkel looks for is an europa that is Germany and the 26 midgets, and frankly neither Merkel neither Germany are Snow White. 

One president, one vote. That has been the voting system applied in the European Central Bank (BCE) since January 1 1999 assumed the responsibility of fixing the types of interest for the whole area euro. But the successful model seems to have her counted days, Germany refuses to continue being treated as a more ones, and he prepares the assault to try to be guaranteed the control of the BCE. Berlin wants a new voting system that reflects the economic dimension of each country or, at least, its participation in the capital of the BCE.   

The position that Merkel seeks, will be studied in the next summit of the UE, (December 9) inside the reformation of the Treaty that Berlin, wants to disguise him with the excuse of shielding the fiscal discipline of the area euro, and to deepen the economic and fiscal integration of the club. (Wrong goes when she no longer refers to the Union). It seems that the proposal would go very on-line with the German belief, that Europe is them, and now they don't feel this way it and they want to impose this reason, so they will seek to change the democratic maxim, of a person and I bounce, in this case a national central bank a vote.   

Merkel seeks to take out party of the position of economic force of Germany, to govern the European, first Union economically through dominating the BCE and its proposals would go guided to distribute votes, according to the economic power of each country member of the Union. This way to the president of the Bundesbank (Bank of Germany) it would correspond him a quota of power and of equivalent votes to 26.22% that is the weight of the German GDP in the group of the GDP of the area euro. The president of the Bank of France would keep 19,71% for the same reason; the governor of the Bank of Italy, with 16,26%; and that of the Bank of Spain, with 13.44%; the question is visible among the four big countries they would add 75.66%    

The new allotment of power, would allow Berlin to maneuver with more easiness to avoid the approval of decisions contrary to its interests, like it can be the monetary politics’ relaxation in these moments, or the acquisition of public debt in the secondary market, to alleviate the pressure of the market on countries like Spain, Italy, Ireland or Portugal. It is gleaned but evident, it is gleaned because in any case Germany has for if alone any absolute majority, but it is evident that it would be the very easy to obtain it, because with the single adhesion of France they would add rounding 45% of the votes, that which already guarantees them a simple majority that with all security before any regulation proposal or approval of economic or financial actions in the Union would give them the application power or disapproval.   

That program of purchase of funds, in spite of their shyness, it has in fact filled the patience of the German hawks. Germany observes with growing concern to an institution that, from the beginning of the crisis, he has begun to catch something of flight and to get rid of the heavy inheritance of the Bundesbank. And Berlin prepares the assault for re conducer to the disobedient institution. But they don't explain him because of this concern, but I explain to him it right now: to Germany and their hawks they worry about that the independence of the BCE, will create the balance of the costs of the sovereign debts one way or another, well for the emission of European funds, or for the purchase of funds of the countries not so rich in the secondary market.    

This takes place inevitably that if the differentials of debts shorten, Germany could not continue being financed to cost practically zero I eat up to now, because the buyers of funds would prefer to invest in funds that with the same guarantee that German to the European being, pays them but you interest (they plunder it) they are very clever the Germans, and they are believed that the other ones are very silly, now the German voucher almost cobra instead of paying, while one Italian pays a 6 or 7%, if me investor you that a bottom that guarantees me exists that Europe paid it to me that they believe that I will make, because to buy funds of Italy that surrender me but. Now I don't make it for the distrust of the country.    

In fact this example is simply illustrative of what goes by the square head of the Germans, not of what would happen, if the BCE and the Area Euro regulate the European debt once and for all, be with guarantees of a bottom or for the emission of European funds, the result would be that the different funds would reduce its interest in some terms that I calculate they would oscillate between the 2 and 3.5% with what Germany should begin to pay more for its debt, and he doesn't like this anything and they know because, because if we look at the qualification for the debts and its incidence on the GDP of the area euro, the same as we have made with the national GDP, we see that Germany has 16% of the European debt; France 12% Italy 19%; and Spain represents 10% so here the things they are rotated and the great Germany is the one that but debt would contribute to the group of the GDP of the Euro Area.   

The idea causes chills in Brussels, where it is feared that the German offensive opens a fight for the power in one of the few European institutions whose prestige, although not intact, at least it has not been razed by the crisis. "If the euro has survived in the last 18 months it has been thanks to the BCE and its federal" structure, they recognize in the Council of the UE. "If that is changed, the whole intrigue" can fall, they add the same sources. I don't say that it should not be changed the norms and the functionalities of the BCE, but what cannot be made, is as coarsely as he seeks to make Germany, the BCE is the stone filosofal of the European Union if we break it or we hinder it we break the Union     

And as last point I want to refer to the temptation of proposing an europa to two speeds, this is a stupidity, or it is spoken openly of an Euro reduced Area without the outlying nations: Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, and Ireland that would pass to be part of the European Union next to Great Britain and all the other ones without euro, or it is not necessary to play anything because the two speeds are already implanted from the same beginning in that you born, look if you don't calculate them that I expose them next: 

The central and rich Europe that of first speed is:  

184.000,000 inhabitants with a total GDP of 6.289.730 million Eurus 

The poor Europe and that he/she goes to slower speed we are: 

129.443,000 inhabitants with a total GDP of 3.757.715 million Eurus 

They already come it you the poor, we are as soon as inhabitants 40% and in GDP 37,5%, they are more and improve they are 60% of inhabitants and 62,5% of the GDP. And with reference to the GDP for inhabitant that of the rapids is of 34,183 Eurus, and ours that of those the second speed is of 29,130 Eurus, here we are 15 % poorer, this is not anything. Seen this way in numbers you leave the difference, we are clearly poorer and we already go behind, no matter how much we run we don't reach their speed.  

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