miércoles, 9 de noviembre de 2011

THE ONLY SOLUTION FOR THE EUROPEAN DEBT WITHOUT UNDOING THE UNION



We will consider the matter from the worst point of view the abrupt end of the euro that is unfortunately the virus that poisons in these moments the political solution and the economic viability, of the European Union in definitive. It is not that with this reflection he means that for blame of the euro Greece is in crash, Italy also, Spain has spent more than the bill, France will lose its triple status TO, it is not that but that that yes it is clear it is that the euro didn't take us rather on the contrary out of the well. 

The reality is the one that is, and it coincides that with the organizational system that the European union has you it imposed in its day to work, a brutal economic anarchy has been created, when surprisingly what was sought was the opposite. The fact that some commissions and central parliaments, without any order attribution, neither of control, on the governments and political national of you participate them of the European union, they have allowed that they have been acting without knowing in any moment, the economic reality of the partners, this has taken to the union to unbalance in such a way the situation that today is impossible to control it.

Of course that this takes us to the conclusion, that the authentic culprits of the situation are the own countries of the area euro that have not known how to act with the appropriate responsibility, they have not known, or they have not wanted, because rather I that the shots go for this side find it, in the bottom my I diagnose, it is that all the countries have wanted to be as the one that but, as Germany I put as example, because I suppose they wondered the rulers and the society of each one, so that we are in the European Union if we cannot live better, ambition of the human being. 

This reality, it has not been until this catastrophe moment, contrasted and verified, and the worst thing is that it has not been for own initiative of the European union, but because the external financial markets that if they realized the real situation, of the disorder of the different economies of an association that in no way was an UNION OF NATIONS.  

Well the question is the one that we have today on the table, and the analysis of the situation it doesn't present us more than two solutions: To assume the failure and to rectify it political and economically becoming the Union of Nations of Europe, or just the opposite to recognize the fiasco and to undo it returning to the fair starting point previous to the appearance of the Euro, when the structural differences of the partners, didn't influence more than in the own partner, to opt for an or another alternative, what is necessary is to value the situation and the figures to use to understand it, they are the following ones:  

When you implant the euro their value of change in relationship of the dollar it was of. - 0.903 $/ € Today the euro is in a value of 1.36 $/ € that is to say has a revaluation of 50.6% 

The GDP of the euro area is of approximately 12.188.781 millions of € 

The debt of the area euro completes beat the 8.550.000 millions of € 

The debt supposes 70% of the European GDP then, the debt on the whole if the data are more or less reliable, it is not out of control the group of the euro area he can make in front of this debt, for it the value of the € stays in the international markets. 

That that yes it is certain it is that the debt is not balanced, and this is what produces chills neither Greece with more than 150 debt% on its GDP, neither Italy with more than 120% of his, they can make anything if they are not rescued, and this cannot be, because among other things it would not be exactly for the other countries. They would rot that if, to be helped by the other ones because no matter how much the European commission the ECOFIN or the BCE press, and force to put new governments to toss to Berlusconi etc. he/she will give same that makes, what he was necessary to make the they had to have made the problem before it will persist. 

To reduce costs to balance the budgets is well, but this won't produce any debt reduction, because I doubt a lot that both countries are viable, with the necessary reduction to cover the interests of the debt and to cover part of the main capital, for reducing, the country you headstrong socially, and more being part of an European Union with some levels of unified societies, it is absurd to seek to solve this with single cuttings, like we would explain to the Italians that cannot make the same thing that the Germans, or the Belgians, or even that the Spaniards whose debt problem is perfectly controllable. 

I don't see more solution than the one of to contain the total debt of each nation of the combined euro and to put it in administration to an entity that could be the same BCE or to create a FED (Fund of European Debt) from where obligatorily, all the nations of the Union or at the moment the Euro Area, they should go to obtain the financing that now obtain of the different financial markets and or bank. This entity took the exact accounting of the alive debts and its percentages with regard to the guarantees of the same ones for separate country for country, like he makes the free market now it valued them with the internal qualification and it publishes that is implanted that can be for letters or for numbers or mixed, and each country when it appeals to the financing search, it will justify so that it is, sew that up to now it has not never been made, the FED will be able to refuse or to reduce the quantity, and it will also put a cost of interest on each debt according to the parameters of qualification of the country, of its trust, and use, with that that for example Germany will continue having the cost of the lowest debt in the Union and following the example Italy the highest. 

The FED will be the one that will emit to the international market the emissions of unique European debt I with the guarantee of the European Union, it will be its work to get the necessary funds for the necessities of the national economies and the own European, to the lowest costs that it is able to negotiate, likewise, he will be able to make operations of loans or investments in international debts, to reduce costs and to obtain quantifiable benefits that redound in the improvement of the effectiveness of the economy of the euro. 

They can already give him the turns that want the debt had dismembered the European and alone Union uniting the debt, he will be able to unite the European dream again, including their maximum exponent the Euro. 

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