sábado, 26 de diciembre de 2015

ALREADY STEP THE CHRISTMAS NOW IS TO THINK OF THE 2016



The result of the recent general elections in Spain has been "all the confused one that it could be", disabling between two for political logic Government's alliance parties beyond a "no commendable" coalition between PP and PSOE, according to The Wall Street Journal that considers that the reformations that he needs the country now seem more distant than never. Anyway, I as Spanish would not throw me to the fire of the hell because the truth is that the politics in Spain is very from Spain and what seems impossible at the end is possible thanks to the infinite possibilities of "paying" privilege positions in the lattice of the Spanish state. 

The reformations that Spain needs now seem more distant than never, the political uncertainty created in the country doesn't have easy arrangement, but the politics of the BCE with the purchase of monthly funds he won't make visible the problematic situation in the short term, another thing will be when the BCE changes expansible politics to the normal one and stop to buy funds". at the moment in spite of the incognito of the politics, Spain will benefit of the armor-plating provided by the European Central Bank (BCE) whose program of purchase of sovereign funds has reduced the interest from the Spanish debt to ten years below 2%. 

But Spain cannot have a BCE that buys its funds forever and none of the four main parties in Spain presented during the electoral campaign a battery of measures integrals to approach the challenges of the Spanish economy, including the rigidity of the labor market, the prevalence of the small industries in the Spanish managerial panorama, as well as the first floor investment levels and productivity, the innovation shortage and the poor results of the educational system. 

Besides all this it seems that one gives for fact that Spain continued having the Catalan economy and this matter is much more dangerous that the current political bewilderment for the stability of the economy of Spain, we are to alone one day that the CUP reaches the conclusion that it is worthwhile to support the investiture of Artur Mas for the presidency of Catalonia if this is this way, the things changed suddenly, we all will see as the differences of the four parties "winners" of the Spanish elections they will come to an agreement like for magic art with such of having something to govern because if Catalonia culminates its independence all they know although nobody wants neither to think it that Spain will have many difficulties for the equilibrium its economy and to maintain its debt. 

It is certain that Spain is not Greece and none of the four main parties seeks to reject the obligations of the sovereign debt, "even We Can it moderated its speech in this respect before the elections" but like he said before it is not question of wanting but of being able to, if Catalonia finally gets its government stability to begin the project of its independence and Spain continues refusing to find a reasoned solution him to take to kind of an union more or less storm or indefinite but of similar to same that is to say among a Spanish state and a Catalan republic that he helps assuming a proportion of Spanish debt, Spain won't be able to defend its thousand millions of debt Eurus with a GDP of about eight hundred thousand millions and with the productive structures that he would have left in its territory. 

It is possible that the current virtuous circle (but very flimsy) of growth of the exports, reduction of the unemployment and increase of the expense of the consumer’s derails for the search of a new Government, but they don't doubt it if it derailed if there is a true crash of trains between Spain and Catalonia. Because if this happens Catalonia the productivity it would be taken and Spain would keep the debt, it is a panorama that doesn't suit I believe me neither to Spain neither Catalonia. 

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