IT’S NOT THE 22D, BUT THE SPANISH POLITICS IS DRAWN

With single two days of difference Spain will live wrapped in the nets of the first chance the day 20 the prize of the government from Spain it is drawn undoubtedly it is not known if it will be a prize or a misfortune, but the question is that the Spanish society is played a little more than its future another time, as he/she makes it every four years since in theory it assumed this freedom in 1977. 

I believe that this time the Spaniards will vote on Sunday in the quarreled elections in the last 40 years and not alone they are those more quarreled by the quantity from opponents to the fat prize that is to say to direct the government, but rather they are those that can change more the these 40 year-old Spanish politics and calculated alternation the emergency of new parties that they have broken the hegemony of the conservative right and of the socialist left, to call them somehow it can take to force pacts to guarantee a stable government. 

Therefore, non-alone tomorrow the biggest prize is drawn as up to now, but rather it can have other smaller prizes but that they can be as fat as the first prize. The elections foregone will mark the inflection point after four decades of political predictable toward a new era that it will be commanded by a consent that the country has not needed before. Anyway, I didn't trust this part of consents a lot if I am convinced that there won't be a single prize like he said before, but I believe that at the end of the raffle we will see that in fact alone they will have changed the number of winning, but not the quantity of the prize to distribute that it will continue being the same one.  

After the recent peak of the populist alternatives in the elections of France and Portugal, the elections in Spain will also be a test to determine to what extent the emergent ones can extend their influence in Spain this it is the only variant because of the 12 political formations that converge to these elections it seems that alone four will have chance of being able to say something regarding final prize I refer to: PP, PSOE, C's, and We Can and I continue saying that in fact alone there is one that can represent in I authenticate political change in Spain and this it is We Can and to break up with the traditional alternation between conservators and liberals. 

Although many analysts say that the fragmentation will probably leave in flunk necessary reformations to create employment in a country with five million unemployed (in official figures and more than 6 in the reality), many voters come these elections like an opportunity from sifting a political system considered by many ineffective and corrupt. In this sense I am not so for sure alone it is a political formation the one that can make this change, but rather to this circumstance it is necessary to add the process begun in Catalonia regarding their intention of to complete a separation of the group of Spain and to form an independent Catalonia. 

The PP and the socialists have lost we say the political primacy it is Spain the economic circumstances they have made scandals and bad political practice that have sunk them in the total distrust the society to jump it has been deceived or defrauded and it looks for some new exits he doesn't trust that these parties can be regenerated by themselves. We are already fed up with seeing that both promised things that never completed and on the other hand every time there is more voters than they are no longer so influenced of the rigidities of the politics of the dictatorship that has been without a doubt, the causing one that as much the PP as the PSOE today they are questioning. 

This way tomorrow, new Citizens will emerge as something and We Can, but of these two parties the truth to me to understand is that alone there is one that presents a true change and this it is We Can, Citizens if it is a change, but more than type generational that not of base politics that is to say for many in those that I include myself citizens is the new rejuvenated PP and with another name, but its politics is not less than conservative rights that the old Popular Party. 

We can represent a small but very deep revolution for the traditional Spain it is a formation that breaks up with all that even established their physical appearance their gear they present to a leader with a hair that picks up with a horse line they seem all boys of a field of a public university (in fact their origin is in fact the cloisters of the universities in those that many impart class) many youths say that most of their friends will also vote for the party anti austerity because they consider that it could create work positions among the high community of young unemployed. 

"If there are not works, there is not money and, if there is not money, you cannot have a house neither to cover other basic" necessities, they say many that proclaim their intention of voting for we Can, but there is more much more its way to see the economy is completely opposed to the rigidity and the wild cuttings that have collapsed to the society, to save Spain like he/she has made the PP this last legislature. And this is the dangerous thing and the serious of the situation, notice what I have just written, the PP guided by Brussels, to sunken to the Spanish society to save Spain. Is an authentic absurdity because what Spain is but its society? 

Although one of each five calls to the urns has not decided their vote and the surprise is a possibility, it is given had discounted that the Popular Party led by the current president Mariano Rajoy will be the most voted one, although far from most absolute with the one that has governed the last four years. 

According to most of the polls, the main party of the opposition, the Socialist Party, would be second at certain distance, while the emergent ones We Can and Citizens, (left and new right, respectively) they are very close in the career for the third position and they will be key in the conversations after elections. To complicate more the things, other six parties, among them United Left and the Catalan and Basque nationalists would also have assured seats in the Congress. This situation would leave the door open to alliances in right block and of left in a probable government scenario in minority. 

But it is not necessary to leave aside the possibility that you cannot end up getting a stable government because the agreements to add are more than possible minority can collide continually according to the moment or the political decision to take. On Wednesday Rajoy said that its preference is to look for government's pact that gives stability to the four years of legislature, but so much the socialist Pedro Sánchez like the leader of Citizens, Albert Rivera, they have indicated that they won't enter in a coalition government with the PP. 

Members of Citizens and We Can and analysts consider that the two parties look beyond Sunday and their ambition is to continue stealing voters to popular and socialist, for what come few incentives in supporting a government that one of the two big formations leads. It can happen that the emergent parties see the 20D as the first turn and wait a second where they pass of being emergent to preferable, the adviser and professor of political communication Antoni Gutiérrez Ruby he said. 

In opinion of Ruby, this strategy could be positive for Citizens and We Can, but negative for Spain, since would be more complicated to approve significant economic reformations because from the beginning the situation would take to Spain to some premature elections. This uncertainty for example pushed the differential of the Spanish debt with the German to its maximum in five months this Friday. But we should not think alone in the debt and the economy but in changing the stagnation of Spain so that he can leave the secular immobility behind and to really come closer to Europe if it is that he really wants to be European. have and not to lose completely for the one in route to Catalonia!