The socialist candidate to the
presidency of France, François Hollande, reiterated today its intention of
revising the fiscal pact of the UE. and he supported to add to the treaty the
resource of the Eurobonds to finance industrial "projects and
infrastructures". Merkel seems that in the face of the reality that
approaches it begins to change its habitual speech, pointing out that, "The
austerity by itself won't solve the crisis". That yes, she has not
mentioned of entrance more stimuli to impel the economic growth, but this
declaration is equal to give the exit signal to a new negotiation in Europe. In
fact, the president of the BCE, Mario Draghi has position in scene today the
political change when speaking of impelling measures of growth before the Euro
camera.
Merkel has said that it
supports the idea of Draghi, of a pact for the growth and it has endorsed its
petition of structural reformations in the Euro zone. In a speech in Berlin
before their party, the chancellor has defended that Europe needs to grow but
without forgetting the structural reformations. This way, Germany responded to
the leaders of the BCE today's declarations in Brussels: We "have a fiscal
pact, and what is more present now in my head it is to have a pact for the
growth."
But Merkel has not been the
only one in being pronounced. The Secretary of State of Finances, Thomas
Steffen, said that to "speak of discipline district attorney doesn't mean
that Germany is kind of a Taliban of the consolidation". "We don't
believe that everything is the fiscal consolidation. We believe a lot that the
Euro zone also needs more growth", he added. Words and sentences that
evidently have made jag in the markets that have gotten interesting rises.
Everything seems to indicate
that it wins or not the presidency, Hollande has changed the communist German
philosophy that the Merkel of its juvenile time still crawls, and that it had
imbued with her to Sarkozy, France will crawl it sends who sends starting from
May 6, to the economic and political European institutions to outline the
counterpoint of the created recession, that is to say the economic reactivation
of the UE. The proposal of creating the Eurobonds will figure in a memo that
Hollande will send if it wins the second turn next day 6, to the European
bosses of State with its proposals to reform the European treaty adopted by 25
States of the European Union (UE) the past March 1.
On the revision of the
European pact, Hollande assured: we are not to create conflicts, but neither to
hide tuneless" opinions and it was shown willing to "open that firm
and friendly discussion with the German federal chancellor, Angela
Merkel". I Want that modifies (the pact) or that there is one new",
Hollande insisted who specified that that detail is part of the renegotiation,
but such and like it is it won't be ratified, the candidate settled.
Also, Hollande pointed out
that he will request that the European Central Bank (BCE) he has bigger
financing possibilities that one believes a rate on the financial transactions,
and that the structural funds are not mobilized used. The socialist candidate
assured that the own president of the BCE, Mario Draghi, it has been shown
favorable to introduce in the treaty a pact of growth. We "need financing
that allows the recovery of the growth", it indicated.
It seems clear because that a
change of absolutist approaches is cooking, toward some more social and without
a doubt more aggressive, more on-line with the new economy than it requires
some much more energetic and combined actions that the pure action of
reductions of expenses and costs that alone they take with certainty to the
reduction of the own economy, it is evident that if you plan a smaller expense automatically
you condemn yourself to some smaller revenues, this takes you to an economic
absurdity that is to seek that entering less, you can pay more that is the
error of the theory Merkel in the bottom, her in the face of the growth of the
sovereign debts and before the budgetary deficits of the countries partners a
lot but poor for its economic and industrial structures that Germany, proposes
as solution to get in debt less, to spend less, and to pay more, with that that
if this was possible this way, indeed you reduce debts and you adjust budgetary
deficits.
But this is certain for a
country that leaves of a non deficit point, and of non debt, if Germany spends
less he has more than enough Eurus for the ears, because its industry doesn't
stop but rather it reduces costs and it increases margin of benefit
consequently, but this is not worth for the other ones that it happens them
just the opposite, if Italy, Spain, France, and the smallest Greece and
Portugal no longer say, they reduce expenses and they adjust the deficit, but
they stop the economy of the country, with what they don't have left remainder
when lowering the revenues, neither to return debt neither to finance it
neither it stops anything.
It seems that this so simple
it has arrived to the French politics, and for that reason I believe not to
make a mistake in saying that it is who is the new elect president a great part
of the community Europe he will make change the address of the economy of the
euro. Europe requests financing it is spoken of Eurobonds with what many
millions would possibly be saved in interests, because it is evident that these
new financial instruments would be quoted as minimum in a half point of the
current funds he gives each country, if this is this way, we could suppose some
Eurobonds that would quote in auction among an interest among the 2 to 3,5%
this is almost half of what has to pay the Spanish treasure for their
funds.
With everything to me I lack
the last action that would be the internal financing with the help of
increasing the money in circulation in the European economy, this means that
the BCE primes but Eurus, will see the GDP of the euro area approximately it is
about the 12, 000,000 million Eurus that is to say 12 trillions if the BCE,
with the opportune agreements throws to the market an increase of effective
equivalent alone to 10% of the GDP, this would be equal to an injection of 1,2
trillion Eurus. The reaction of the serious markets of being tranquilized
completely, and surely to devaluate the euro more or less in an equivalent 10%,
this would suppose that the value of change of the euro with the serious dollar
of 118/119 dollars for an euro, calculates much in agreement with the reality
of the state of both economies.
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