miércoles, 25 de abril de 2012

THE ACTIVATOR THAT ACTIVATES GOOD ACTIVATOR WILL BE


The socialist candidate to the presidency of France, François Hollande, reiterated today its intention of revising the fiscal pact of the UE. and he supported to add to the treaty the resource of the Eurobonds to finance industrial "projects and infrastructures". Merkel seems that in the face of the reality that approaches it begins to change its habitual speech, pointing out that, "The austerity by itself won't solve the crisis". That yes, she has not mentioned of entrance more stimuli to impel the economic growth, but this declaration is equal to give the exit signal to a new negotiation in Europe. In fact, the president of the BCE, Mario Draghi has position in scene today the political change when speaking of impelling measures of growth before the Euro camera. 

Merkel has said that it supports the idea of Draghi, of a pact for the growth and it has endorsed its petition of structural reformations in the Euro zone. In a speech in Berlin before their party, the chancellor has defended that Europe needs to grow but without forgetting the structural reformations. This way, Germany responded to the leaders of the BCE today's declarations in Brussels: We "have a fiscal pact, and what is more present now in my head it is to have a pact for the growth."  

But Merkel has not been the only one in being pronounced. The Secretary of State of Finances, Thomas Steffen, said that to "speak of discipline district attorney doesn't mean that Germany is kind of a Taliban of the consolidation". "We don't believe that everything is the fiscal consolidation. We believe a lot that the Euro zone also needs more growth", he added. Words and sentences that evidently have made jag in the markets that have gotten interesting rises. 

Everything seems to indicate that it wins or not the presidency, Hollande has changed the communist German philosophy that the Merkel of its juvenile time still crawls, and that it had imbued with her to Sarkozy, France will crawl it sends who sends starting from May 6, to the economic and political European institutions to outline the counterpoint of the created recession, that is to say the economic reactivation of the UE. The proposal of creating the Eurobonds will figure in a memo that Hollande will send if it wins the second turn next day 6, to the European bosses of State with its proposals to reform the European treaty adopted by 25 States of the European Union (UE) the past March 1.  

On the revision of the European pact, Hollande assured: we are not to create conflicts, but neither to hide tuneless" opinions and it was shown willing to "open that firm and friendly discussion with the German federal chancellor, Angela Merkel". I Want that modifies (the pact) or that there is one new", Hollande insisted who specified that that detail is part of the renegotiation, but such and like it is it won't be ratified, the candidate settled.  

Also, Hollande pointed out that he will request that the European Central Bank (BCE) he has bigger financing possibilities that one believes a rate on the financial transactions, and that the structural funds are not mobilized used. The socialist candidate assured that the own president of the BCE, Mario Draghi, it has been shown favorable to introduce in the treaty a pact of growth. We "need financing that allows the recovery of the growth", it indicated.  

It seems clear because that a change of absolutist approaches is cooking, toward some more social and without a doubt more aggressive, more on-line with the new economy than it requires some much more energetic and combined actions that the pure action of reductions of expenses and costs that alone they take with certainty to the reduction of the own economy, it is evident that if you plan a smaller expense automatically you condemn yourself to some smaller revenues, this takes you to an economic absurdity that is to seek that entering less, you can pay more that is the error of the theory Merkel in the bottom, her in the face of the growth of the sovereign debts and before the budgetary deficits of the countries partners a lot but poor for its economic and industrial structures that Germany, proposes as solution to get in debt less, to spend less, and to pay more, with that that if this was possible this way, indeed you reduce debts and you adjust budgetary deficits. 

But this is certain for a country that leaves of a non deficit point, and of non debt, if Germany spends less he has more than enough Eurus for the ears, because its industry doesn't stop but rather it reduces costs and it increases margin of benefit consequently, but this is not worth for the other ones that it happens them just the opposite, if Italy, Spain, France, and the smallest Greece and Portugal no longer say, they reduce expenses and they adjust the deficit, but they stop the economy of the country, with what they don't have left remainder when lowering the revenues, neither to return debt neither to finance it neither it stops anything. 

It seems that this so simple it has arrived to the French politics, and for that reason I believe not to make a mistake in saying that it is who is the new elect president a great part of the community Europe he will make change the address of the economy of the euro. Europe requests financing it is spoken of Eurobonds with what many millions would possibly be saved in interests, because it is evident that these new financial instruments would be quoted as minimum in a half point of the current funds he gives each country, if this is this way, we could suppose some Eurobonds that would quote in auction among an interest among the 2 to 3,5% this is almost half of what has to pay the Spanish treasure for their funds. 

With everything to me I lack the last action that would be the internal financing with the help of increasing the money in circulation in the European economy, this means that the BCE primes but Eurus, will see the GDP of the euro area approximately it is about the 12, 000,000 million Eurus that is to say 12 trillions if the BCE, with the opportune agreements throws to the market an increase of effective equivalent alone to 10% of the GDP, this would be equal to an injection of 1,2 trillion Eurus. The reaction of the serious markets of being tranquilized completely, and surely to devaluate the euro more or less in an equivalent 10%, this would suppose that the value of change of the euro with the serious dollar of 118/119 dollars for an euro, calculates much in agreement with the reality of the state of both economies. 

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