IT CANNOT BE, WE ARE ABANDONED BY THE U.E. TO OUR LUCK

Spain continues entangled in a debt net and deficit and of ineptitude and distrust toward the government that I fear myself that the "'default', the rescue, or the airy exit of the euro, they are already its only exit. Although the sovereign debt is not excessive, the problem is that this bolting, as everything the rest in the last three months, is evident although they don't declare it that the tremendous contention of the deficit won't have another form of getting it that changing deficit for debt. If the government persists in the agreed politicians, it will finish where Greece, Portugal and Ireland, that is to say, under an umbrella of a rescue. This is already the scenario more unavoidable for Spain. 

 

The pessimism and what is worse, the total abandonment of the markets and of the own UE, toward Spain, it contrasts with the indulgence of the Spanish ruling politicians and already until they say that the worst thing has already happened. However, the situation is as untenable as always, or more if it fits, it is also it that of the bank sector of Spain. And this reality is untenable for our country, Spain doesn't have possibilities to assume the correction of its imbalances, and less all at the same time, its budgetary deficit, and the increment of its debt, and its banking in complete “broken banking”. 

  

The contention of the deficit, in the global situation of recession, makes it impossible because in these moments, Spain won't be able to improve its fiscal revenues, and unless he leaves to its society, orphan of all sanitary, educational service, and of subsidies, it is not accountably he possible to dry the budgetary deficit of the state. The Spanish government's great decision is in this dilemma: or to finish with the real, provoked deficit the suspension of the expenses of sanity, education and mainly subsidies, helps to the banking, and to the private credits, and to be allowed to fall in a recession of which won't be able to leave until in 10 or 15 years; or to rush to a reactivation of the productive economy and the reduction or adjustment of the number of inhabitants of the country in the appropriate terms to their maintenance possibilities, all this doing without of deficits or financing it with the help of getting in debt to get liquidity to invest, and industrial projects and infrastructures that start again to the country the bad thing to start up is that there already is not who lends money to this country disaster. 

 

The economic imbalance is no longer for the excesses of social and political waste of the era PSOE, the budgetary deficit is now almost for reasons impossible to move away, to maintain a slight social peace, the political administration, and of the public official, of the public sanity, of the public education, and mainly the subsidies, as much that of unemployment as that of jubilation, the activity fall has brought I get the total imbalance between the ratio revenues and expenses, to maintain 23% unemployment in which 45% is also already of long duration, more the jubilation subsidies, and you help to palliate the cases of social exclusion that take place for ousters to complete families that nobody already has an employment, they are impossible for an economy in recession. 

  

The general index of prices of the housing of the INE fell 11,2% last year the, but 21,7% only descended from the pick in the third trimester of 2007. It is necessary to remember that the Spanish bubble was much bigger that other, but the prices have only lowered in around 30%, because the main banking worthy of the debt caused by the bubble, doesn't want or he/she is not able to, to give many lost and it is lengthening the situation logically awaiting some exit that doesn't arrive that reliance the economy and with it brakes it the losses that are reflected inexorably in the balances, every time that the assets are depreciated. 

 

How he will recover the Spanish economy if the private sector and the public sector seek you give to be lever up at the same time, this is impossible first one should get ready and then the other one and the order to me to understand are to fix the private or productive first, because the public doesn't produce any value added the more he wants to be corrected stronger it will be the deceleration of the economy of the country.  

 

The deficit was last year of 8,5% of the GDP the it was an enormous excess, but the reason was not the fiscal indiscipline. It was necessary to avoid a bigger fall. The recently revised objective is of 5,3% for this year and 3% next year. So the total adjustment of the public sector that is necessary by virtue of the rules on the deficit of Europe is an incredible 5,5% in two years, this in a country amid a recession and without industrial fabric to reactivate, it is little but that to take to the society to the misery but real and shameful of the Europe of the Euro. 

 

If we notice the grade of total leverage that is for before, as much in the public sector as in the private one, the question is not if the Spanish economy bounces in 2013, but if he can really give a rebound before the end of this decade, for Spain, the correct adjustment politics would be a program for it took to the private sector to reduce its leverage, in three years, with the support of a considerably high public deficit and, that yes, accompanied by all the necessary economic reformations to undertake the take off. 

 

But to get this they should change the guidelines of iron of the UE. Spain should fix a problem first and then the other one, and the first one is evident that it should be the reactivation of the contribution of revenues by means of the taxes to the production, and of the private consumption, a form of trying to balance these serious two factors to negotiate up to where Spain can get in debt, and on this base to use the debt like regulator of the deficit of the state that without a doubt some will be caused, don't doubt it. 

 

The moment to approach the deficit of the public sector would be after it has been completed the give leverage of the private sector. If one doesn't make for this order Spain it will continue blocked in a debt trap and deficit, of the one which the 'default' it will be the only escape road. If it persists in the agreed politicians, it will finish where Greece, Portugal and Ireland, that is to say, under a rescue umbrella. This is the scenario for Spain I waited that Rajoy and De Guindos prepares some spectacular exit to this dilemma but I see that or he doesn't have any ace in the sleeve, but there is not a lot of time to be thought it because this catastrophic situation will be seen in the beginning of the next semester of this year when they finish the French, Greek and Italian elections.