In their last opinion column published in the New York Times, the prize
Nobel of Economy, Paul Krugman, recognizes that our country is "in full depression".
he doesn't care to speak of recession, Spain is in a complete depression, with
the unemployment in a level comparable to the one that United States registered
during the Great Depression",
According to Krugman, "Spain was not fiscally since squanderer"
in the previous years to the crisis he had a low debt ratio and a budgetary
surplus. But unfortunately, we had an enormous real estate bubble, a bubble
largely caused by the enormous loans from the German banks to their Spanish
homologous. And these they didn't know that to make with so much money for two
reasons, one for the lack of experience, and other because in Spain there were
not any industrial fabric neither similar structure where to invest the gold of
the "Rhine."
For the prize Nobel of Economy, when the bubble exploded, "the Spanish
economy stayed in the one staked", but he leaves "the fiscal problems
of Spain very undoubtedly they are a consequence of its depression, not its
cause". It is for it that Krugman attacks the recipe implanted by Berlin
difficultly that, like it is obvious, it is centered in a bigger fiscal
austerity. Again, it crosses out of "madness" this type of measures
again. "This type of programs impels to the even more depressed economies
to the depression."
It is evident and I have repeated this way it many times that the excessive
measures of austerity won't be able to reduce the costs of indebtedness. This
is this way because the investors are very pending of the capacity of the
countries to pay the debt, and an economy in recession, without perspective of
growth he has difficult to be able to confront their responsibilities with the
market. This reality seems that he goes winning followers little by
little.
Nicolas Sarkozy repeated its bet to give to the European Central Bank a
bigger paper to impel the growth again, in spite of the German negative, in an
intent of convincing the voters that he/she is the best defender in the
economy, to single five days of the French elections, and he lifted bladders in
Berlin when declaring in a campaign meeting that wanted a debate on the
reorientation of the politics of types of the BCE, with the objective of
impelling the growth.
The conservative president that has lost back in the opinion polls told to
the radio station France Inter that to give the BCE a paper promoter of the
growth, it would not require to modify the European treaties or to question the
independence of the bank. It is not possible that the BCE doesn't participate
in supporting the growth, as all the central banks of the world", Sarkozy
said, mentioning the use that makes China of the exchange rates of the Yuan to
favor an economy based on the exports.
It is certain that all this is pronounced in electoral campaign, and one
wonders because he has gotten lost so much time, and if these reflections so
logical, Sarkozy would outline them without being immerse in a battle, mainly
about economy, with the socialist François Hollande that has an advantage of
double digit in the face polls to the second turn of the elections, May 6 that
are the elections that define the new or old president of the republic
Be like be the true it is that this posture of pure economic logic, goes
winning impulse and mainly qualified voices, it is evident that Europe should
give a turn of 180 grades if he wants to survive her, and to make viable the
economies of the countries in difficulties, the problem of Europe certainly,
was not solved with declarations of prizes Nobel and of presidents in
difficulties in the elections of its country, but at least they move to the
society and the public opinion, and they go her rotating toward the correct
side.
The pity is that these positions, they should already be carrying out
because otherwise, I fear myself they to arrive late for some of the countries
in difficulties like it is the case of Spain, but good it is necessary to be played
the life a little and to toss hand of the intuition and the most probable
thing, it is that so much if Sarkozy wins as if he makes it Hollande, Europe
will rotate without remission because the current balance of the axis Paris -
Berlin will break, and it is evident that although the money has it Berlin the
European popular and social force he will have it Paris, next to Rome and
Madrid, although this last one has a government of right, but we are already
accustomed in Spain to go to against foot of the other ones.
Conclusion, for a pair of months, I would advise to the government from
Madrid that doesn't lose the north creating but useless regulations and
draconian cuttings that the only thing that they get is that the markets judge
us so completed that they don't trust of us, it is necessary to wait a little
more, it is necessary to get ready for the exit shot that will happen in a way
or another after the French elections, among so much let us take care that they
don't despoil us our few industrial values, banana countries, and let us wait
to that the European economy marks the new roads to continue, alone it would
lack that when rotates the vane of the decisions, doesn't have in foot any
investigator, any development center, any infrastructure of transport, any credit
line to the industry, and half of ours titled is working in Germany.
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