martes, 17 de abril de 2012

IT IS NECESSARY TO GO PUTTING THE THINGS BEFORE IN THEIR PLACE THAT IT ROTATES THE WIND


In their last opinion column published in the New York Times, the prize Nobel of Economy, Paul Krugman, recognizes that our country is "in full depression". he doesn't care to speak of recession, Spain is in a complete depression, with the unemployment in a level comparable to the one that United States registered during the Great Depression",  

According to Krugman, "Spain was not fiscally since squanderer" in the previous years to the crisis he had a low debt ratio and a budgetary surplus. But unfortunately, we had an enormous real estate bubble, a bubble largely caused by the enormous loans from the German banks to their Spanish homologous. And these they didn't know that to make with so much money for two reasons, one for the lack of experience, and other because in Spain there were not any industrial fabric neither similar structure where to invest the gold of the "Rhine." 

For the prize Nobel of Economy, when the bubble exploded, "the Spanish economy stayed in the one staked", but he leaves "the fiscal problems of Spain very undoubtedly they are a consequence of its depression, not its cause". It is for it that Krugman attacks the recipe implanted by Berlin difficultly that, like it is obvious, it is centered in a bigger fiscal austerity. Again, it crosses out of "madness" this type of measures again. "This type of programs impels to the even more depressed economies to the depression." 

It is evident and I have repeated this way it many times that the excessive measures of austerity won't be able to reduce the costs of indebtedness. This is this way because the investors are very pending of the capacity of the countries to pay the debt, and an economy in recession, without perspective of growth he has difficult to be able to confront their responsibilities with the market. This reality seems that he goes winning followers little by little. 

Nicolas Sarkozy repeated its bet to give to the European Central Bank a bigger paper to impel the growth again, in spite of the German negative, in an intent of convincing the voters that he/she is the best defender in the economy, to single five days of the French elections, and he lifted bladders in Berlin when declaring in a campaign meeting that wanted a debate on the reorientation of the politics of types of the BCE, with the objective of impelling the growth.  

The conservative president that has lost back in the opinion polls told to the radio station France Inter that to give the BCE a paper promoter of the growth, it would not require to modify the European treaties or to question the independence of the bank. It is not possible that the BCE doesn't participate in supporting the growth, as all the central banks of the world", Sarkozy said, mentioning the use that makes China of the exchange rates of the Yuan to favor an economy based on the exports. 

It is certain that all this is pronounced in electoral campaign, and one wonders because he has gotten lost so much time, and if these reflections so logical, Sarkozy would outline them without being immerse in a battle, mainly about economy, with the socialist François Hollande that has an advantage of double digit in the face polls to the second turn of the elections, May 6 that are the elections that define the new or old president of the republic 

Be like be the true it is that this posture of pure economic logic, goes winning impulse and mainly qualified voices, it is evident that Europe should give a turn of 180 grades if he wants to survive her, and to make viable the economies of the countries in difficulties, the problem of Europe certainly, was not solved with declarations of prizes Nobel and of presidents in difficulties in the elections of its country, but at least they move to the society and the public opinion, and they go her rotating toward the correct side. 

The pity is that these positions, they should already be carrying out because otherwise, I fear myself they to arrive late for some of the countries in difficulties like it is the case of Spain, but good it is necessary to be played the life a little and to toss hand of the intuition and the most probable thing, it is that so much if Sarkozy wins as if he makes it Hollande, Europe will rotate without remission because the current balance of the axis Paris - Berlin will break, and it is evident that although the money has it Berlin the European popular and social force he will have it Paris, next to Rome and Madrid, although this last one has a government of right, but we are already accustomed in Spain to go to against foot of the other ones. 

Conclusion, for a pair of months, I would advise to the government from Madrid that doesn't lose the north creating but useless regulations and draconian cuttings that the only thing that they get is that the markets judge us so completed that they don't trust of us, it is necessary to wait a little more, it is necessary to get ready for the exit shot that will happen in a way or another after the French elections, among so much let us take care that they don't despoil us our few industrial values, banana countries, and let us wait to that the European economy marks the new roads to continue, alone it would lack that when rotates the vane of the decisions, doesn't have in foot any investigator, any development center, any infrastructure of transport, any credit line to the industry, and half of ours titled is working in Germany.    

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