LISTEN TO ME IT IS NECESSARY TO THINK SERIOUSLY OF ESCAPING FROM THE EURO AREA

There is no way that the politicians or the political economists, understand that it is happening, but the worst thing is that they will act in spite of it and what will happen will be an it authenticates economic and consequently social catastrophe in a great part of the UE. Today he is early that Germany grew 1,5% in 2014. Switzerland comes undone of the parity controlled in connection with the Euro and it goes up the cost from its deposits to the --0,75%, before these expectations what happens is the logical thing the turnaround of the German funds it has been practically unstoppable. 

As it won't be it the capital he doesn't have left another refuge in europa that the German funds, look it for where they want but all this will still collapse more the other economies of the euro area, alone these two data to those that have referred in the previous paragraph, are enough to cause this speculative movement, but it is that for if was little the expectations that the European Central Bank becomes an important buyer of public debt through its program of quantitative relaxation (QE). he Makes that before the proximity of that date, the true challenge of the investors is to get enough German public debt in 2015. 

We found out yesterday that at the moment an important obstacle has been overcome to the debt purchase on the part of the BCE. Pedro Cruz Villalon, general lawyer of the European Tribunal of Justice, assured on Wednesday that "the program of monetary operations of sale and purchase is compatible with the Treaty on the Operation of the UE". in short, Cruz Villalon announced that the BCE should have "good trial" to take to the practice its monetary politics and he noticed that the tribunals should control the activity of the entity with considerable contention" grade. Although its opinion is not to link, it usually serves from reference to the magistrates when they dictate their sentences. 

On Wednesday, after being known the opinion of the TEJ, the German funds experienced a turnaround, reinforcing the excellent evolution of the market. The profitability to five years is negative, while the yields to ten years are in a historical minimum of 0,44%. There are experts that say that if the BCE begins to buy public debt, the profitability will increase, as the investors begin to harvest benefits. Other economists believe that the current tendency will consolidate. In Royal Bank of Scotland calculates that the profitability of the German funds to ten years will fall to 0,13% and that the yields of the funds with expirations to thirty years will descend to 0,7%, but after all profitability, I don't believe this I believe that the German funds quoted above 1% at 10 years and I am unable to guess those of 30 years. 

The great problem is that besides the possibility that the BCE buys debt, Germany he also benefits of being since the refuge of the euro zona it has maintained its qualification AAA. The main risk of all this is that the euro breaks definitively, and this happened without fail, the remaining economies of the non alone euro area don't have increments of 1,5% as Germany but rather many are in deflation, a real deflation although with the budgetary and financial engineering he/she hides but this it is the reality. 

If the BCE begins to buy debt and he doesn't make it inversely with a relationship proportional to the indexes of the GDP of the economies of the euro area, the phenomenon that will happen will be the following one: The BCE will be seen in the tessitura of buying a lot of German debt and this will be this way for two reasons one for the pressure of Germany and on the other hand, because the first given hints of the system to use speak of investing in agreement debt with the percentage of the GDP of the nations, and of the contributions to the own one deposit of the BCE dedicated to these ends.  

This is an atrocity since inevitably the BCE bought but German debt that of any other country, with what will get that Germany practically is financed not already without costs, but rather he carries out fatty benefits, while the truly needy countries of alleviating its debt like for example Spain, Italy, France and other, they will be rather just the opposite object of purchases of commitment that didn't solve anything its economies, they moved away them every time but of the rich nucleus of the euro. 

This benefitted to the debt markets because that will make it will be to buy "poor" debt to call it somehow, to some high interests and to deposit their earnings in German funds. Tremendous at the end that invested by the BCE, it will stop to the pockets of the speculators and those of Germany. The only form to avoid this and that also the (QE) European works as element reactivate, serious to make the opposite that is to say the BCE he should not buy German debt, but solely Greek, (if it is that they want that it continues) Spanish, Italian, French, Portuguese, etc. and to make it inversely proportional to his security, that is to say it is necessary to buy more debt in risk than sure.  

Some indicators aim to an acceleration of the growth in Germany at the beginning of this year, although it seems that it will be soft. Now that the inflation of the euro zone is in negative territory and in the face of the possibility that the BCE starts its program of QE, it doesn't seem that the good situation of Germany will brake and it doesn't fit them doubt against but strong it is weaker Germany it will be the rest of the euro area, at the end it doesn't fit them doubt the euro it will be unbearable for many economies, although it follows its fall in front of the dollar they remember that in Spain for example, before the euro the peseta was in a fringe of 130/140 pesetas / dollar.