THERE IS NOT ANY PLAN FOR GREECE AND SPAIN THAT ASSURES THE NECESSARY SURPLUS STOPS

The economist boss of the Fund Monetary International esteem that the Greek efforts are insufficient. He doesn't tell me anything new that already knows it for years what they don't say it is still that behind Greece, Spain goes because the conditions are then the same ones in general the problem finally it will be the same one neither Greece neither Spain they will be able to dry the fiscal and commercial deficits, neither the sovereign debts  

It is said of the mountaineers that should have vision to 1 meter, 10 meters and 100 meters. What they suggest the debates of the authorized economists that me in the last seminar organized by the BCE in Sintra. It is that we don't have a very clear vision to 100 meters. But we have a good vision to 1 meter and 10, a clear idea of the address to take at the moment. This is not completely soothing but it is not catastrophic.  

What I am surprised of this philosophy is the width of the economists' aims and bankers of the central bank, I have always said that each one should look that is to say according to their own responsibility and position a worker in an assembly chain he should look at what comes to 1 meter, the boss of assemblies what comes to 10 meters and the production director should see what comes to 100 meters and if the parameters are changed everything one comes below. 

Imagine that the production director passes the time in looking at what comes or it passes to a first meter it hinders the operative and the assembly boss because they will be pending of his observations and while that passes to a hundred meters the assembly chain it is breaking for blame of a monumental jam of cars or pieces what you want when they realize the three there will no longer be solution the chain he stopped hopelessly. For this reason the situation in Greece is irreversible today and for that reason it will also be it in Spain the rescues of the IMF the BCE and the UE they have made the effect to the meter of the chain they didn't see further on, no matter how much they say now the opposite, alone I interest that you solves the moment nobody he was devoted to see what it would pass a hundred meters further on. 

Would it have been possible to get a slower budgetary consolidation? Had bill of the gigantic deficit budgetary initial, if it had been opted to reduce it more slowly, should the granted financial helps still have been bigger than what they have been? I believe that not, seeing the point in which Greece, the necessary adjustment was at any rate gigantic and a limit existed to what the official creditors were willing to give. Today this point do is they are prepared in Spain and this situation to the Greek it will happen in the first trimester of 2016. 

The IMF maintains a flexible posture on what Athens should make once finally a coherent program is presented. According to the plans foreseen in the program, the budgetary balance of the State should hurtle this year a surplus of 3%. We knew many that this would be probably impossible for economic and political questions. To revise the surplus to the drop on a paper is possible but it is necessary to be clear: this implies the necessity of a new financing that requires the help of all the Europeans clearing it is always that they seek to let that Greece continues living to coast of the UE during all its existence.  

Now then, this alone it would work if, in compensation, a coherent program exists. Keeping in mind the last estimates that verify a substantial budgetary deficit at the moment, is necessary to establish viable measures to transform this deficit in surplus and to maintain this surplus in the future. In view of that proposed up to now, we are still very far too much more than 100 meters. This makes us wonder again where to save in the budgets of Greece. Is what is evident that the system of pensions is often too generous that there are even too many officials, etc? This also implies to consider how structural measures are essential to guarantee sustainable growth to half term but is it also that of here 100 meters the same situation arrived in Spain and possibly in 200 meters in Italy the question is somebody there is looking toward there? 

Several crisis scenarios exist that go from the control of the capitals until the exit of the euro. The IMF the BCE and the UE hope to avoid them all. Mario Draghi has made an alive call to all the governments of the area euro so that they don't wait more to carry out the reformations. Does it exist the certainty that this will change the situation? The area euro should solve two problems. In the first place, the demand should increase to elevate the production level until which corresponds to its potential.  

Mario Draghi says with reason that its work of central banker is in fact this. But the area euro has another problem, an industrial and commercial index potential of very weak growth. To increase it doesn't depend on the central bank. This requires them to be carried out reformations on the part of the offer and the demand. Are they able to the reformations to increase the index of growth from the production to half term of what way? Nobody is sure of the answer, but that is not reason for not to attempt it for the next meter and not to wait to that the a hundred end up following and let us realize that the economic chain in this case broke.