THAT IT PUNISHES THAT THE ECONOMISTS ARE SO NEGATIVE

That I am insisting in that the euro should be devaluated and express is already almost a sentence made in my articles of economy like they come another time I write it in the first paragraph for not taking to deceit to my followers. Be already here another time that heavy one! Some of them will possibly think and he stopped to read the article I don't advise it to him it is I believe interesting because we will analyze as the one that wants that it is not depreciated he offers some comparisons that you/they go in against with what I seek with the devaluation that is not another thing that to reactivate the industrial production in Europa. 

The European Central Bank (BCE) he meets immerse in a process of monetary expansion with the objective of fulfilling the inflation goals. Also, the program of stimuli of the BCE is serving so that the euro is depreciated before other foreign currencies and the exports of the Eurozone win force. Although this is not a public objective of the BCE, they are many the economists that trust the weakness of the euro to reach a vigorous growth, the same as me but I eat in everything there are opinions in against.  

As The “Caixa Research” publishes in its last monthly document, the last studies point to that the relationship between the exchange rate and the exports has weakened substantially. The most outstanding element that there is erosional this relationship is the peak of the Global Chains of Value (CVG). It is considered that a country is integrated in a CVG when their exports, besides being made up of added value generated in the own country, contain an outstanding part of goods and intermediate services that come from other economies. In this case, the price of this exports depends so much of the local cost as of the cost of the goods and added intermediate services and cared, it points out the report. 

Logical if the currency of the country is depreciated, the cost of sale of the manufactured product will be more affordable from the side foreign buyer because it diminishes him the cost of the part of the produced added value and given from the interior market when having been reduced the local currency in front of the strange one. Nevertheless, the costs of the cared inputs (first matters or other goods without concluding) that are necessary to manufacture the product and that they stay in foreign currency these they didn't reduce the cost in the appropriate proportion to their importance and final quantity in the final product. 

Let us put an example Europe it manufactures an article (X) in that 50% of its components is of origin or European production and let us put that the euro you depreciates 10% the rest of components that they are cared from other places whose foreign currency has not been devaluated they were more expensive concretely 10 % more expensive (the devaluation of the Euro) then the export price would not vary at all. Then because many want that the euro is devaluated in the first place it is very difficult that a parity is completed in the costs of any product, the important thing is that an action of devaluation would force to reconsider the cared costs and the first effect would be that Europe would look for the way to take place component in the internal market.   

If doesn't make it it means that, before a depreciation of the local foreign currency, the price of the exports taken place inside the CVG would decrease less than if the exported goods had been produced locally in its entirety and, in consequence, its simulative effect on the serious exported volume also smaller. 

But it would be an incentive to recover productions losses or des localized that that without a doubt it would move the work market the investment in new facilities to manufacture those lost products again and mainly the devaluation would balance Europe again possibly because the big industrial countries look toward the areas of the south again where the unemployment and the economic imbalances make that the manpower is cheaper and they replace those brought productions of Asia or other origins that today is competitive for that the euro makes them very economic for its import again but that they would stop to be it so much if the euro is devaluated. 

According to the last studies of the World Bank this theory would be certain, although the relationship still exists between the exchange rate and the exports, this is every smaller time. On the contrary that the World Bank, the IMF doesn't find any change neither evidence that it confirms this theory that is to say that the devaluation of a currency takes I get the devaluation of the export cost (in more or less percentage depending on the configuration of origin of the components of the product).  

According to the calculations of "The Caixa Research", the depreciation that has suffered the euro recently yes it has served so that the volume of exports increase between 3% and 3,8% however, it also points out that years behind (when the CVG was not so important) the same depreciation of the euro had meant an increment from the near exports to 5,5%. So although the sensibility is possibly smaller between the exchange movements and the exports, its relationship devaluation smaller export cost is not neither from a distance extinguished.