domingo, 19 de octubre de 2014

ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS HIM IT IS NOT THE SAME ONE I ARTICULATE THAT YESTERDAY AND OF THE DAY BEFORE YESTERDAY AND….. ETC.


There is not movement some the UE he is waiting I don't know that alone I know that it is not a miracle but just the opposite wait that he/she falls a ray and it destroys it this is the plan I am sure the UE and the Euro tolerate because nobody dares to be the one that is depicted in the world history as which I finally make the decision of finishing with an UE that no longer exists in the practice, in this year for example have passed of an incipient and un restrain able recovery, to worry about a turn to the recession.  

In the horizon they begin to appear the black clouds of a new relapse, the third in six years, however, before being unchained the storm they begin the first drops that advance the storm in form of the poor economic data that have begun to be published in the euro area to fall. The fear to a new relapse of the economy you has generalized, but toward where do they aim the first indicators? 

To these heights of the year, Germany is presented like one of the countries of the euro zone that will have more complicated to avoid the recession that technically he takes place when two trimesters of contraction of the GDP are chained. Between April and June their economy fell 0,2 percent, for what another descent will already cause the technical recession. The data that have left publishing of the third trimester are of all less positive ones. The great German motor, the industry, it is passing a complicated phase: the production of the country fell 3% inter annual in August.  

This figure doesn't only reflect the first descent from July, but rather, also, it supposes a reminiscence of the recession of 2012. They return old ghosts. A fall of 3,1 percent in November of that year served like advance of the crisis that he came. The surveys of trust, it leaves of the most reliable early indicators to measure the economic pulse, they also point toward the recession. The PMI manufacturer has also fallen in September below 50 (limit that separates contraction expansion) in the one that is its first descent in 14 months. 

What does it pass with the labor market of Germany that so many praises receive? The reality is that the recovery has stopped in dry. In the last five months 37.000 people have been aimed in the lists of the unemployment, a significant tendency change. That that more me stranger is because the markets are asked this question when the answer is in view of all the German market he stops because the measures imposed by Germany have stopped the market when ruining the economies of the UE, and with Germany in recession and France totally stagnated during the first half of the year, but with some consumption levels and frozen investment, it is unthinkable, to think of a reactivation. 

What seems more possible is that Europe cuts all hope that the vigorous roots toss flower. And this situation will already produce a worsening of the crisis almost perpetual that suffer in Spain. One of the pillars of the recovery of the Spanish economy has been the exports; however, the deterioration of the commercial partners of the country is turning off this motor of growth. In August the sales to the foreigner fell 5,1 percent inter annual, what supposes the first August in negative from the year 2009. The stop of the exports is reflected in a smaller intensity of growth of the industrial production that advances to its smallest rhythm from October of 2013. 

With Germany on the edge of the recession, the possibilities that the group of the euro zone doesn't fall in the third recession they are remote. And arrived to this point there is not more remedy than to consider that old one said that at third  the conquered one goes.  

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