A while ago that many of us, economists and experts, among those that personalities
like the own Ben Bernanke is included, we have criticized the economic politics
of the UE in fact because in the bottom it was the German politics, based on
the exports, and it allowed it some commercial high surplus of the country. The
strategy that has contributed to the country to maintain its financial balance
has also contributed to deepen the problems of its European partners, impacting
on the production and the employment of the neighboring countries and on all
the Mediterranean ones.
Today the government and the markets included Mario Draghi, they tell us
and they repeat that the Spanish economy is growing quarterly to a rhythm
approximate of 0,8% and it is expected that this year it grows above 2,4%, a
rate that was not observed from principles of 2008, when the crisis began to
make notice in the country. In fact, at the end of that year, the GDP already
fell to a superior rhythm to 1%. But the times have changed and the economy has
grown again they tell us. I don't agree with this illusion that they seek that
we believe ourselves and I will tell them because. In those years the GDP was
very superior to the current one, this one cannot do with direct comparison of
value of both PIB's because the value that is indicated to value the GDP is
relative and now he doesn't also have relationship one with another for the
interested changes that have been made, I eat the inclusion of prostitutes and
swindlers for example.
But if we can compare a ratio that indicates us that now we are poorer
and that it is lie that the Spanish economy this growing and this you can
compare with the following values: in 2008 Spain he had a debt that represented
the 40,2 of the GDP in and the GDP was of 1,116.207 million Eurus and the GDP
per capita of 24,274 Eurus. Today is that the debt is of 97% of the GDP and
east has gone down to 1,058,469 million Eurus and the GDP per capita it is of
22.780 Eurus, therefore already they can from the government to say what they
want, if this year 2015 its forecasts are completed and it goes up 2.4% it was
that the GDP will be of 1,080,000 million Eurus and the GDP / capita 23,235
Eurus.
Now see yourselves that the GDP continues being very inferior at the
2008 but it is that the Spanish debt is also otherwise in 100% practically this,
there are not available resources in theory the whole GDP it is committed and
certainly this is noticed mainly in the GDP / capita, where we will follow 4%
lower that in 2008, if this is to grow then if it is theoretically it with
regard to last year, but not regarding the starting point we lack a lot, as
minimum two years that is to say up to the 2017, but with everything this
growth won't arrive directly to the society, because it is evident that the
debt will have surpassed 100% of the GDP, I calculate that in 10%.
This countable situation together with the obligation of maintaining a
public deficit of 2% if I don't remember bad, he makes that all the resources that
we are able to be generated will not pay debt to improve the employment neither
so at least the wages, so don't count us histories, Spain has become poor and I
fear myself that it will continue becoming poor because the rest of Europe
except those always, Greece, (if it still continues) Italy and Portugal will be
in the line boxcar swallowing us all the smoke of the German locomotive that
threw of the UE, if we don't remedy it among all.
And among so much what it passes with the wages? To measure their
evolution, the real one, is not easy. There are diverse statistical sources, as
the Survey of Labor Costs of the National Institute of Statistic (INE) that is
the one that they habitually use the economists and that it reflects that
ascended to 2.638,8 Eurus in the fourth trimester, what supposes a descent of
0,5%. With this fall, the half labor cost for worker and month it adds one year
in negative, so there is not improvement for any side that is wanted to look,
except in the macro numbers to present to the BCE that these if they indicate
that we will pay the debts but nothing else, for that reason they are so happy
the governments from Spain and of the UE
But the reality, the reason of this cutting of labor costs is that many
workers have seen their reduced salaries during the crisis, and they continue
decreasing today I have stiller read that the revenues to the Social security
even there being (according to the Government) less unemployment, it doesn't go
up the collection, because many employments are below wage it bases or
provisional, storms and outside of all labor agreement, those most affected
ones continue being the officials, the workers of the sector services and to
other many that have frozen them to him.
The statistic of collective agreements that elaborates the Ministry of
Employment, picks up moderate salary increments for the last years, but it is
nominal ascents, not real. At the moment the INE is working in the design of a
survey that measures with reliability the real evolution of the wages. More
than half of the workers in Spain, about 10 millions, he has their labor
conditions fixed by collective agreement, either sectorial, autonomous,
provincial or of company.
According to the statistic of agreements, until March of this year the
salary ascent made a pact in agreement was located in 0,69%, a figure that you
grieve has varied in the last years. The reason that the salary increases have
moved around this quantity it is necessary to look for it in what is known like
Agreement Inter confederal of Collective Negotiation (AENC), a pact that
you/they sign the unions every so often CC.OO. And UGT with the managerial
organizations CEOE and Cepyme and that it serves from guide to their
representatives when a new collective agreement is negotiated or the one is
revised that already exists. Said otherwise alone it is good for play to make
numbers to present to the UE.
Let us don't deceive ourselves more the market labor Spanish goes bound
as all to the industrial and productive fabric and this neither it exists and
he is not seen come for any side in this country. And for more desperation the
Spaniards have to read that in Germany the salary rise made a pact by the
sector of the metal in the month of February of more than 3,4% in the salaries
starting from east of April sat down a precedent there, for the unions of the
rest of sectors of activity of the country he opened up a door that took closed
years, the one from the revision to the rise of the salaries.
It is evident that this will urge the German products and this is
possible it forces to a change of concepts of rigidity to the politicians of
austerity in Europe otherwise if the rest of the partners doesn't buy the
economic results they will be disastrous for the heart of the European economy,
but I am not very optimistic I believe that unfortunately Spain although he
wanted he cannot make more than the paper of the ashen one in the story of the
Europe of the marvels because here workers have more than enough and they lack
industries and this doesn't get ready in 10 years like little, somebody tells
it to him that knows what says unfortunately
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