You cannot follow the area euro he collapses this way
in the deepest in the political, economic inefficacy, and of the lack of
credibility in itself, the analysis of the situation is very dangerous in these
moments all the ministries of economy of the ECOFIN, each one in its country,
they are not calculating and valuing doesn't eat to save the euro, but as being
left without dying in the intent, this it is the tremendous reality in which
are in these moments, although it is not public, the lack of results views in
the reactions of the economies of UE and the fears of the financial markets
regarding all plan of the euro area give the rule to this situation.
The change of political situation in Greece, the
immobility of the economy in Italy, and the more than sure loss of most
absolute of the government from Spain, he threatens to accelerate the fall to
the hole of the euro area, the other circumstances continue being the same
ones, also even harming to the economies that maintain them. France this change,
Germany continues anchored in its uncompromising foundations and without any
vision of solidarity, in spite of having been alone and of suffering as anybody
the deterioration of its economy, think that for its form of being won't find
out, but the depreciations of their real assets are in these very superior
moments to those of Spain and Italy.
But this doesn't serve me as comfort, because in
definitive it is not good me for anything, (the wrong of many is comfort of
silly) the area euro seems that he has thrown the towel clearly, and this in
fact sustains it for the French attitude, I believe that finally it will be
France the one that precipitated the end, because I doubt that after the
victory of the right of Sarkozy, the socialist François Hollande current
government something will have to make to try to save its second command and if
it continues with political of right he won't understand it the French
society.
It is not that I am mad the idea, I have told it many
times and concretely I have requested in some of my articles a brave that
begins to move in the sense, appropriate to save the euro and the UE, I don't know
because I sense that he is cooking the idea that the euro can fall in the
European chancelleries, the burden that has to support Greece doesn't believe
that it is sustained by much more time by Syriza and I fear myself that the
next one hurts political it will be seen in Spain. At the end if there is not a
substantial change on the part of Germany and they get ready the world
pressures coming from the Middle East comely etc. that the brave almost with
all security will be France the one that redoes the conditions that were good
to begin the dream of the European Union in his day, again because the reality
is that those circumstances today they are no longer valid.
Of course that I can be in an appreciation error, and
to calculate that what cooks can have a surprise variant, which could be that
France, I don't know how, opts to be preparing the way to dismantle Germany of
their destructive theses, instead of the exit of France of the euro, in fact
using this possibility like final ultimatum, be like be, the certain thing is
that I support any movement that spreads to unblock the irreversible end of the
European Union, whenever it is with a positive solution, but I don't want to
support to maintain it neither one minute more, with some actions so negative
and interested, as those that it proposes day after day the German
politics.
It is that the inefficacy that impose the arguments of
the Merkel is clear, in fact, I challenge somebody of my readers to that they
tell me one alone that develops a reason or action plan, its manifestations are
always the same ones: this is not the definitive solution, the creation of
European funds this is not the definitive solution, the creation of the rescue
Fund, this is not the definitive solution, the current "QE", it is
worth you say because, and also say which it is to their to understand the
definitive solution, because the pressures and the cuttings already go you that
they are not it, but rather just the opposite, except for clearing it is that
if they are the solution for Germany that at the end no matter how much now it
loses, he will always have left enough advantage to buy once to the rest of the
area euro this it is completely ruined.
Lastly, I believe that I already exposed it but I make
it again, I can grant to Germany that doesn't want to participate in acts of
solidarity with nations that formerly those that maintained it in waist after
two dramatic wars, were but it is that I find so outside of place this attitude
that until I ask for forgiveness to expose it and to think it, but me contrary
to the Merkel always intent to say what I think, and now I will tell him that
if she doesn't want European because exactly serious funds Germany who would
guarantee them in the bottom, I understand it, but there is another possibility
that I exposed in their day, and it is the creation of an organization whose
serious function to negotiate what we could call the European public treasure,
endowing it of an initial capital of 2 trillion Eurus, the trillion that was
approved already makes more than one month in form of a bottom ghost because
nobody has seen it, and another trillion more as margin of security,
These two trillions mean 16% of the current global
GDP, this quantity would be contributed by the BCE, with the help of the
setting in circulation of 2 trillion new Eurus, that would make lower the rate
of the European foreign currency that we cannot really sustain and they are
making it lower the markets without we take out profit some of this
circumstance. The countries of the euro area included Germany, they would
deposit in this entity their current debts that he would make increase their
capital on one hand and their risk for another.
But these surrenders would be totally counted
unilaterally, so that each country he would have their debt and their very
defined countable parameters, to be able to qualify her, and to treat her
independently, of another debt with the purpose that each one has their
interests and independent costs, that is to say that to Germany doesn't cost
him nothing else that what their solvency rules, and this way the debt of each
country.
Starting from this controlled reunification, the alone
new petitions of debt financing rotted to be requested and granted by this stamen,
and not the open financial market, to this market the new entity would go,
which would negotiate European debt without specifying of the one who or it
stops who is, and once obtained of the market it would assign it to its
addressee counting the different applications of cost of the same one,
according to the parameters of internal solvency of each country of the euro
area. Of course this organization would be qualified and authorized to
negotiate purchases or debt sales or financial products you tune of inside of
and outside of the euro area, that is to say he should try to make business as
another financial entity anyone of the market of international debt.
I assure them that one in the best ways of unifying
what is, is that what unifies, be a good business and of benefits for the
partners, this is a rule of gold that I have learned during my professional
life. But what cannot be is that the debts in the UE grow more and more and
have they cause as sign of general alarm, the necessity that the capital hides
in the debts of countries like Germany that get paid instead of paying. This
any person economist or not, you see that it is a natural aberration and that
it denounces a bubble of such a caliber that when it explodes we will be taken
to all for before
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