viernes, 13 de marzo de 2015

THE CHALLENGE DE GREECE TO GERMANY AND VICE VERSA



Germany has become worthy of taking on her all the blames of the economic financial inability and of all the governments' of the euro area planning and the UE in general fear myself that this alone Germany could tolerate it for two reasons one because its society is very strong and mature and other because he knows that the UE and the euro depend on its economy. The bad thing is that this last it is a he arms of double edge because the other partners of the euro also know that threatening to the euro threatens Germany. This is the play that Greece trusts, for that reason its leaders act with this swagger point and they attempt the economic blackmail, when the certain thing is that this doesn't help anybody.  

The minister of Finances of Germany, Wolfgang Schäuble, it has assured that you cannot discard" an exit of Greece of the Eurozone and it has made responsible of what can happen to the current Greek Government, led by Alexis Tsipras. And this already too many times ago is written at the end in my opinion it will really happen. Today one has known that the fiscal revenues of Greece stayed 13,8% below that waited. And on the contrary it has been known that the exercise 2014 Greece their economy left the recession 0,8% curious truth it in fact grew the year in that Syriza didn't govern. 

The possibilities to decide what will happen correspond at the moment Greece. Neither Germany neither the UE know exactly what a today they are making the responsible ones economic in Greece and therefore nobody in the euro area can discard anything, the German minister declared this way it in an intervention last night before Austrian public television, regarding that eventual “accidental exit” of the Eurozone on the part of Greece. The minister of Finances of Germany has explained that Europe is prepared to help Greece but that it is this country the one that one has to be helped itself. 

The question is difficult I believe that not so much for what can represent as repercussion to the economy of the euro but for the political fact and I publish of having to make a decision of this so much type for Syriza in the option of taking out to Greece of the euro like of the euro area of allowing Greece to fall so that it is excluded herself of the Euro group, and I am not me the one that has this opinion the minister of economic matters Pierre Moscovici, has noticed of the consequences that he would have an exit of Greece of the Eurozone, in an interview that advances the weekly publication Der Spiegel it could be "the principle of the end." 

At least we will be all of agreement in Europe in that a 'Grexit' it would be a catastrophe, it doesn't only stop the Greek economy, but for the whole Eurozone. After all, this is more than an area common of exchange rate. It is a monetary union. According to Moscovici, if a country abandons this union, the markets will wonder immediately which the next country will be, and that could be the principle of the end I believe that Moscovici spends of having braked and the only thing that makes with this is to give him your arm to Varoufakis and Tsipras weapons that won't serve them because to the final Germany he will have the last word they don't doubt it. 

In my opinion this bewilderment is helping to devaluate the euro next to the monetary politicians of the BDE and this has always said that it is the only way to put the things in its place and to arrive to a possible recovery to the force, the competitiveness of the industry and the European factory won vastly in these three months the European products 33% they have been reduced and the most curious thing is that the import products have not risen in price 33% of the devaluation, because the world needs to sell Europe so they also adjusted their prices what they can, at the end it will be the euro area the one that won competitiveness. 

Another thing is the trust investor and economic with regard to the euro this it is another ghost that they take out to walk so much Greek as Germans as much some as the other ones argue that if Greece leaves the euro it will be the principle of the end because the world markets wondered who will be the next one. I believe that this is already asking it to him because the markets know that not alone it is Greece the one that has problems they know the Spanish economy very well the Italian and the French and they know that if these they tolerate the euro he won't have problem some in surviving with the corresponding devaluation that didn't stop until arriving to 0,80% of parity with the dollar. 

But so that Spain Italy and France tolerate it is necessary to clean the basket of apples and today is clear that there is a rotten apple that is Greece and I don't refer to its economy but to its new form politics, and this if it can be the principle of the end because if this politics of Syriza wins the pulse they don't doubt it later anger PODEMOS in Spain and if this happens then yes that the euro dies. He knows me wrong to write this but I believe that the euro area cannot admit more delays neither Greek chicaneries and it should expose clearly that or he makes what the UE requests him or that it cannot continue in her that hard this would be the definitive message that would tranquilize the world markets and the markets and interior governments that today doesn't have a very clear political future. 

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