lunes, 16 de marzo de 2015

IT IS NECESSARY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE DEVALUATION OF THE EURO TO CORRECT THE DEFICITS



The slope of the euro toward the parity with the dollar will give a very wanted impulse to the European companies this year it was already hour that this understands each other it was an inexplicable atrocity as some economies in ruins like those of the euro zona could maintain a foreign currency that I end up being 40% above the parity with the dollar. Now this correction that is confirmed will force to that its American rivals adapt their business or take a risk to lose market quota. Although the agreements to cover the risk of foreign currencies suppose that the benefits won't see each other automatically, the weakness of the European foreign currency has already made happy the European consultants when making their cheaper products abroad and to elevate the value of the sales based on dollars. 

I have never understood because we were conditioned to maintain the strength of the euro, but now it seems that the wind changes direction and we try to take out the maximum profit of this positive effect that he will help us to give an impulse to the sales and benefits of 2015", I believe that many big companies in that its scale of costs was very based on the import they should think that a strong euro benefitted them without realizing that it was just the opposite because while Europa could consume its products in Eurus its benefits they were extraordinary but at the end the things are regulated alone when the UE has stopped to consume (the deflation demonstrates it) the scale has changed tendency. 

The companies that predict some favorable winds coming from a near fall to 20 percent in the value of the euro in the last half year, until values of 1,06 dollars on Friday, they are the maker of airplanes Airbus, the maker of cars and trucks Daimler and the groups of French engineering Schneider Electric and Alstom. Some American companies also come positive a weaker euro, as some smaller financing costs, a better evolution of their European branches that they export or a bigger demand of European clients, besides a bigger affluence of trips to the continent for the tourist sector. 

But the most common reality is that most of American companies, as Apple, Dupont, Caterpillar or General Electric, they have noticed that they can it turns affected in Europe and other places, while some as Xerox have reduced its forecasts of benefits for it. These companies have said that now they look for to reduce the costs, and for they looked at it of increasing the proportion of components from inside the area euro and to adapt with new politicians of prices to try to maintain their market quotas and margins then the devaluation completes the effect of re launching of the production as always and with it of the economy. 

This is not new for that reason my followers will have read it to me numerous times my confusion now it is maybe bigger when not understanding because he stayed the euro in some untenable values that alone it was good to buy but he doesn't stop to sell, for what the imbalances that have been created will take years in overcoming. Mainly in the production of all kinds of industrial or textile complements for example will have put in operation factories and practically abandoned productions again  

Now it will be necessary to drift to longer term, keeping in mind that the weakness of the euro will stay because of the program of purchase of funds of the European Central Bank (BCE) and a probable increase in the types of interest because of a solid economy in United States. He will be necessary to think on where you have your revenues, where you take place and where you buy your matters cousins, this is a true change that has always benefitted to the one that devaluates of having entered and it maintains the quality and the prestige of their manufactured I hope this understands each other I am for sure they will make this way it the Germans and Central European my doubt this as always in my country Spain. 

Spain was a country before being in the UE where the devaluation was very common to be able to compete with the imports but the bad thing was that most of times one should make because what offered our industry was of a very little upgrade as soon as quality and technology and this fears myself that now he goes to be the danger number one of our economy I fear myself that the devaluation of the alone euro serves Spain, to sell better sun and beach that is to say tourism and agrarian products and others of not very high technology because as always the products of more technology like cars, pharmacy, and computer, science what is manufactured here is in factories of non-Spanish origin, Ford, Opel, WW, Citroën regarding the chapter of vehicles Merck, Boehriger Ingelheim In pharmacy, HP computer science, Alstom and the Swiss ABB, etc… that have production plants here they will be the most favored. 

But I don't worry about until the point of doubting in any event of the effectiveness of this devaluation I worry about him to arrive too much late because in Spain there have been during these last 5 years a true dismantlement of companies that they have escaped as souls that the devil of the unstoppable costs pursued them, for the high salaries for the energy for the social costs everything paid it in Eurus when his market paid in dollars 40% cheaper. 
In itself, the fall of the euro is a good news. He should have a positive impact in our sales and benefit operative, many companies they say that they studied to capture the benefits of the euro in their supply chain, "taking advantage to suppliers based on Eurus". This means that the industry looked for more and more "the regional" self-sufficiency. 

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