SOME DAY WE WILL BE ABLE TO STOP TO SPEAK TO DE GREECE… OR IT DOESN'T INTEREST

The presidents of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, and of the European Council, Donald Tusk, announced yesterday an emergency help for Greece coming from European funds not used by value of 2.000 million Eurus. This help is almost an action of charity social since it is given before the untenable social perspective that many Greek citizens support.    

Juncker has remembered that in the appointment at seven of yesterday among Greece, Germany, France, the European Commission, the BCE and the European Council committed to liberate not used funds of the community budget in favor of Greece and that today that quantity has been calculated in 2.000 million Eurus that - he underlined - they won't feed the arks of the Greek Treasure, but to support solidary the efforts of growth and the social cohesion in Greece. Junkcer has pointed out that "Greece that knows a serious social problem that has been denominated of humanitarian crisis and that indeed it is a humanitarian crisis, and he has the ability to grow underdeveloped, he needs help of the European" budget.    

The measure arrives hours after the partners of the European Union gave an ultimatum to the Greek Government again so that it presents a new plan of reformations in exchange for new helps. The financial situation of the country is desperate. This month, the country confronts expirations for 4.500 million in interests of funds and letters and for 1.500 million of the rescue. Today, Greece will pay 350 million to the IMF. But the fear to that the country is left without liquidity doesn't make more to grow. In April it will confront expirations for 2.800 million; in May, for 2.300 and in June for 3.500. This help of emergency of 2.000 million of Eurus of the UE arrives in a critical moment for the country.    

And do we take this way speaking or is writing the same day after day the question that floats in the atmosphere economic World cup When it can be left without liquidity Greece?  There are several fronts that worry in these moments. The first one, the shortage of liquidity of the public parks. RBS points out that in the first trimester of the year its deficit can be located between the 1.400 and the 3.400 million Eurus. For the second trimester, according to calculations of the agency Bloomberg, this shortage of liquidity would ascend to the 5.700 million Eurus.     

The fiscal deficit of Greece even puts in question its capacity to pay the salary of the officials or the public pensions. - A Government should not be in this position, because it is a very inclined situation to that accidents happen -, Athanios Vamvakidis, analyst of Bank of America, we "believe that in April and in May the Government will pay the wages and the pensions. For everything the rest, will have delays in the payment". In this sense, some Greek means inform that the Hellenic executive has begun to retard the payment to their suppliers. In definitive and although the visibility of the position of exact liquidity of Greece is not very clear, all the reports continue suggesting that the capacity of the Greek authorities to confront their expirations is measured in weeks."   

Among so much the flight of deposits that seemed to be had content after the extension from the rescue to Greece for four months agreed at the end of February, is also increased with the increase of the tension of the last days. According to different sources, yesterday they left the Greek banks between 350 and 400 million Eurus, the worst day in one month, that is to say, since it was made a pact lengthen the rescue to the country. According to the Greek newspaper Ekathimerini, from February other 10.000 millions of Eurus of the bank deposits have come out. This represents a total fall of 15% last year from November of the.    

The alone Greek banks have as access road to the liquidity the bottom of emergency of the BCE (ELA, for their initials in English) that the central bank has risen repeatedly in the last weeks. And if we added these exits of deposits to a worsening of the economy (especially of the public finances) and the minimum progresses in the negotiation, we believe that the risk of imposing restrictions to the internal and external payments has increased considerably that is to say we are in view of a "Corral" and the truth to see the horse of “Troya” contained it doesn't seem a good solution for the UE and of course for Greece.    

To avoid the control of payments and to avoid extreme scenarios as this, the Bank of Greece could have gone to the reservations of different public entities, among those that the bottom of pensions, hospitals and universities are, among you finish them possibilities that he would have the country appeal to funds of the bodies of the State, something that could already be making according to several information’s; even to receive a loan of a foreign Government as China that already bought Hellenic letters in the last auctions or that the Greek Treasure was able to emit more letters, but the BCE it imposed a limit of 15.000 million and it doesn't seem feasible that can elevate it (in fact just yesterday was denied Tsipras this possibility).     

The declarations of the European leaders continue emphasizing the idea that they don't want that Greece leaves the euro, but this hypothesis he stops to be a taboo topic. You begins to speak of Grexident, concept that summarizes the idea that the country would rot it turns forced to abandon the area euro for an "accident", as the fact that he was left without resources. A while ago that my followers know my opinion in this respect me I believe that Greece doesn't have to wait any accident he simply has to assume its reality and their bad economic administration during their governments' years, to recognize it and to confront it clearly offering the UE its provisional exit of the euro but not of the UE I believe that it is the only and true exit of the Greek economic conflict    

The creation of kind of an economic limbo it is to me to understand the best solution for all Greece it should create a new internal economy and it stops that he cannot make it with the cost of the euro it should also create an in agreement currency to the reality of this economy at the same time this would allow the Greek government to govern socially and economically to the country making devaluations and enough monetary masses of the new currency to activate the internal economy and that the Greeks can consume and to be redoes this is evident that with the euro they cannot carry out it and they cannot neither request that the other ones European that don't neither walk very had more than enough we finance them their problem.    

The extension for four months of the rescue to alone Greece gives time to the country to continue negotiating with its creditors, but it doesn't imply the payment of new helps. With everything, the experts of RBS affirm that "a restructuring of the debt or a possible problem of liquidity would not necessarily have to be translated in the exit of Greece of the euro". I believe that they make a mistake because it is not alone a debt question but of a national economic structure that today cannot support to the euro.