While Spain France and Germany are devoted to entertain to the European society with news without transcendence on the unfortunate air accident of Germanwin the continuous life and mainly the Greek economy continues falling I believe me that without possibility some of being redoes. The Hellenic Government has less than two weeks to convince to his European homologous that a deep commitment exists to implant the necessary reformations that drive to Greece toward a sustainable road, the first problem is that what can be sustainable for the euro area is not sustainable for the Greek society that is completely in the misery.
If this ends up happening, the country could abandon the toxic hairspring in that its economy is sunk, where the lack of reformations forces to increase measures of austerity braking this way the growth. And moving away social measures that is to say in sanity education and grants to make just the opposite that Alexis Tsipras promised even that chose him president. In this sense, the analysts of Bank of America Merrill Lynch considers that the first Greek minister, it should take advantage of the situation to emulate the former Brazilian president, Lula Da Silva he gives.
Lula was the union leader of lefts that surprised to the market with an economic improvement without precedents in spite of the initial doubts, it estimated in a carried out report Athanasios Vamvakidis, Rubén Sure-Cayuela, and Sophia Salim. Tsipras has a unique opportunity to demonstrate its leadership and to take measures counting as starting point the list presented in front of the Euro group the past February 20. It is "we impossible to be able to rebut anyone of the proposals but the Greek government should prove that it can apply them and to finish the work", it showed the document.
As always the economists and more if they have a clear tendency of the school of the dollar they forget with which it sights they work and that made Lula he made it having their own foreign currency and with her he made what he found more opportune to adjust the real economy to the economy of a daily meal that was in principle what promised. In Greece the government cannot alter his economy because this it depends on the euro and east depends on Germany for what to try to compare Alexis Tsipras with Lula da Silva gives it is impossible.
To arrive to good port, the country should leave the euro as soon as possible and at the same time him more negotiated possible with the euro group and this would make that Greece would not only win in credibility but rather it could also get an agreement where measures are included that favor the growth assuring the fiscal consolidation and the acceptance of its currency otherwise with a parity this euro Greece he needs an interior currency that allows him to be managed by its economy and its government and that it is convertible in Eurus to continue inside the UE.
There are three possible scenarios for the short term future of Greece, one good that it implies that Tsipras learns of Lula and implement reformations key for the country for it requires it like he told restructurer before its economy with an own foreign currency that reflects the real value of its current economy and allow to carry out its politicians to the style Lula.
Another possibility, not so good, to assume that Greece continues getting dizzy the partridge, with the Hellenic Government making the fair thing to persuade to its European homologous to finance the necessary quantities so that the country can already cover the credits existent. Until they get tired and they toss him because this scenario is not sustainable neither for the UE neither for the own Greek society.
And lastly, the most adverse position includes the agreement lack between Greece and the European institutions, something that would cause a flight of bank deposits, control of capital and the exit of the euro. "The probabilities so that this scenario takes place they have increased", they indicated from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, where its scenario bases it continues outlining a given reformist commitment the support to the euro of the Greeks. Another time those of Merrill Lynch demonstrates that they don't know anything about anything except for taking care of its investors, because it is not certain that the Greek society wants the euro what wants it is to live as the Greeks of before the euro.
So the thing this white of the three options two also take us to the exit of the euro and an although later and worse so the solution is clear the Greek economy is unwrapped in other parameters and among other markets outside of the general economy of the countries that they compose the Euro Group, this is this way and you cannot change although the own UE wants another serious thing that the UE becomes a federal union evidently but in the current composition nobody will want to pay the debt and the lack of Greek resources. Greece is configured territorially socially and economically according to some parameters of own life and of its vicinity and influence area that it is like it is for centuries and it is to years light of the area of European influence.
We should not doubt it more something should change in the current situation to get that Greece can guarantee its maintenance to half term. And this is not another thing that to liberate it of the economic prison in that he entered making traps that Germany and France also consented so what plays now is also to let that Greece accommodates its economy with its own currency that this it is convertible to Eurus and that it continues being a country of the UE of full right if in a time it is able to change its alone economic condition it is question of recapturing the euro again and he finished. This the world markets will thank it because we all will have clearer in what circumstances it is sustainable the euro and now than the dollar he will begin to move.
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